HUBUNGAN ANTARA CONSUMPTION ABROAD (MODA 2) DENGAN COMMERCIAL PRESENCE (MODA 3) DI SEKTOR JASA PARIWISATA INDONESIA

  • Muhammad Fawaiq Kementerian Perdagangan
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v10i1.31
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Keywords: Perdagangan Jasa, Moda 2, Moda 3, Pariwisata, VECM Granger, Trade in Services, Tourism

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara Moda 2 dan Moda 3 dalam perdagangan internasional di sektor jasa pariwisata. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger. Data yang digunakan adalah data kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara dan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) jasa hotel dan restoran tahun 1997-2014 di Bali, Jakarta, Kepulauan Riau dan Sumatera Utara. Daerah-daerah ini berkontribusi sebesar 81,26% dari total kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara di Indonesia dan 68% terhadap total FDI di jasa hotel dan restoran Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas jangka pendek antara kedua variabel tetapi terdapat hubungan jangka panjang satu arah yaitu variabel Moda 3 dipengaruhi oleh variabel Moda 2. Hasil pengujian pada gabungan antara jangka panjang dan jangka pendek menujukkan bahwa variabel Moda 3 secara kuat dipengaruhi oleh variabel Moda 2. Dengan demikian diketahui bahwa semakin banyak jumlah wisatawan mancanegara yang datang ke Indonesia maka akan mendorong meningkatnya FDI di jasa hotel dan restoran, tetapi meningkatnya FDI di jasa tersebut tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap masuknya jumlah wisatawan mancanegara.

 

This paper examines the relationship between Mode 2 and Mode 3 of international trade in tourism sector. The method used is the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger. The data used in this study were the number of foreign tourist arrivals and the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in some hotels and restaurants during 1997-2014 in Bali, Jakarta, Riau Islands and Nort Sumatera.These regions contributed for 81.26% out of the total tourist arrivals in Indonesia and 68% of the total FDI in the services of hotels and restaurants Indonesia. The results using VECM Granger demonstrated that there was no short-term causality relationship between these two variables but they had a long-term causality relationship that the Moda 3 was affected by the variable mode 2. Test results on a combination of long-term and short-term showed that the variable mode 3 was strongly influenced by variable mode 2. Thus, it is known that the more foreign tourists coming to Indonesia, the more FDI we gained from the service of hotels and restaurants, but this increase does not significantly affect the number of foreign tourists.

Author Biography

Muhammad Fawaiq, Kementerian Perdagangan
Pusat Pengkajian Kerjasama Perdagangan Internasional

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Published
2016-07-31
How to Cite
Fawaiq, M. (2016). HUBUNGAN ANTARA CONSUMPTION ABROAD (MODA 2) DENGAN COMMERCIAL PRESENCE (MODA 3) DI SEKTOR JASA PARIWISATA INDONESIA. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 10(1), 45-62. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v10i1.31
Section
Articles