PERKEMBANGAN NERACA PERDAGANGAN DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHINYA
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Abstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan neraca perdagangan Indonesia dan faktor yang mempengaruhinya selama periode Kuartal I tahun 2006 sampai dengan Kuartal II tahun 2013 menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Neraca perdagangan Indonesia menunjukkan perkembangan yang positif dalam kurun waktu 2006-2011, dan pertumbuhan negatif selama periode 2012-2013. Penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek, konsumsi domestik dan nilai tukar riil berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia, sedangkan variabel Investasi Asing Langsung dan PDB Negara lain berpengaruh positif. Nilai error correction model yang negatif dan signifikan menunjukkan adanya koreksi dari pergerakan variabel pada keseimbangan jangka panjang. Hal ini mengindikasikan pentingnya pemerintah untuk mengeluarkan kebijakan yang tepat untuk mengatasi defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia, antara lain menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar, mengendalikan konsumsi masyarat terhadap barang impor, dan menarik Foreign Direct Investment.
This paper examines the development of Indonesia’s trade balance and its determinant factors from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2013 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The development of trade balance from the year 2006-2011 has shown a positive trend. However between the year 2012 and 2013, the trade balance has been negative.The analysis shows that both in the short run and the long run,the domestic consumption and Real Exchage Rate have negative and significant influence on Indonesia’s trade balance. Whilst Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign GDP have positive effect. The coefficient of Error Correction Model is negative and significant implying that there is correction movement from those variabels in the long run. This study suggests that the Government should make the right policy to overcome the deficit of trade balance by maintaining including exchange rate stability,and household consumption of imported goods as well as by attracting Foreign Direct Investment.
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