FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NILAI IMPOR KEDELAI INDONESIA

Aziz Muslim

doi:10.30908/bilp.v8i1.90

Aziz Muslim Kementerian Perdagangan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v8i1.90

Abstract Views: 4631 |

PDF Downloads: 1879

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Keywords: Impor Kedelai, Konsumsi Kedelai, ARDL, Import Soybean, Soybean Consumption

Abstract

Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor kedelai Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berbentuk time series, diolah dan dianalisis dengan metode estimasi dan kointegrasi Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor kedelai Indonesia dalam jangka pendek adalah impor kedelai sebelumnya, harga kedelai USA, harga minyak kedelai Argentina, dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Dalam jangka panjang faktor yang berpengaruh adalah harga minyak kedelai Argentina, PDB Indonesia, dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Kajian ini merekomendasikan bahwa mekanisme pengamanan stok kedelai maupun minyak kedelai bermanfaat untuk menjaga ketersediaan pangan dalam negeri. Peran aktif pemerintah dalam mengamankan stok kedelai nasional serta pengumpulan data-data tentang impor kedelai merupakan tuntutan yang mendesak. Untuk menjaga kestabilan harga dan pasokan kedelai dalam negeri perlu ada upaya untuk mendiversifikasi negara asal impor.

The aim of this study is to determine the factors that affect Indonesia’s imports of soybean. The study utilized time series secondary data and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis. The results reveal that in the short run Indonesia’s import of soybean are influenced by Indonesia's soybean imports in the previous year, price of USA’s soybean, Argentina’s soybean oil price, and the Rupiah exchange rate. In the long run Indonesia’s imports of soybean are influenced by Argentina’s soybean oil, Indonesia GDP, and the Rupiah exchange rate. This study recommends that mechanism to maintain soybean stocks demanded is useful for food security.Therefore Government role is important in providing the accurate data on soybean stock, and diversification of the country of origin is crucial to maintain price stability and supply continuity in the country

Author Biography

Aziz Muslim, Kementerian Perdagangan

Pusat Kebijakan Perdagangan Luar Negeri, Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Kebijakan Perdagangan

References

Afzal, M. (2004). Estimating Long-run Trade Elasticities in Pakistan: A Cointegration Approach. The Pakistan Development Review.

Armington, P. S. (1969). A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, vol. 16, pp. 159–76.

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen. (1986). Determinants of International Trade Flows: The Case of Developing Countries. Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pp 107-123.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Niroomand F. (1998), Long Run Elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner Condition Revisited, Economic Letters 61, pp. 101-109.

Bahmani-Oskooee. (1998). Cointegration Approach to Estimate the Long-Run Trade Elasticities in LDCs. Taylor & Francis Journals, March, pp 89-96.

Banerjee, S. (2002). Recovery and Growth in Indonesia Industry: Element of A Future Policy Framework. UNSFIR Working Paper. Jakarta.

Batiz, F.L.R., and Batiz, L.A.R. (1994). International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics. New York: Macmillan Publishing Company.

Bond, M. (1985). Export Demand and Supply for Groups of Non-oil Developing Countries. IMP Staff Papers, Vol. 32, pp. 56-77.

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). (2013). Data Ekspor dan Impor periode 2000-2012.

Darmadjati, D. S., Marwoto, D. K. S., Swastika D. M. Arsyad dan Y. Hilman. (2005). Prospek dan Pengembangan Agribisnis Kedelai. Badan Litbang Pertanian: Jakarta. Departemen Pertanian.

Direktorat Aneka Kacang dan Umbi. (2012). Data dan Informasi Aneka Kacang dan Umbi Jakarta. Kementerian Pertanian.

Dornbusch. (1985). Intergenerational and International Trade. NBER Working Papers 0792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Dornbush, R., and Fischer, S. (2003). Macroeconomics. McGraw-Hill. Boston.

Engle, F., Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, vol. 55, issue 2, pp. 251-76.

Goldstein, M., and Khan, M. S. (1976), Large versus Small Price Changes and the Demand for Imports, IMF Staff papers, 23, pp. 200-225.

Hooper, P., Johnson, K., and Marquez, J. (1998). Trade Elasticities for G-7 Countries. International Finance Discussion Papers No. 609.

Houthakker, H.S., and Magee, S.P. (1969). Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade. Review of Economics & Statistic, Vol. 51, Pp 111-125.

Johansen, S., (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pp 231-254.

Kreinin, M. E. (1977). The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on the Prices and Volume of Foreign Trade, IMF Staff Papers, 24, pp. 207-329.

Laurenceson J and Chai J. (2003). Financial Reform and Economic Development in China. Cheltenham. Edward Elgar.

Mankiw, G. (2003). Macroeconomics. Fifth Edition. Worth Publishers. Madison Avenue. New York.

Mah, J. S. (1993). Structural Change in Import Demand Behavior: The Korean Experience. Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2) , April, pp. 223-227.

Nuryati,Y., Nur,Y.H., dan Prabowo. (2009). Faktor Penentu Instabilitas Harga Produk Berbasis Impor (Kedele dan Gula). Buletin Ilmiah Perdagangan. BPPKP Kementerian Perdagangan RI. Jakarta.

Orcutt, G. H. (1950). Measurement of Price Elasticities in International Trade, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. XXXII, No. 2, pp. 117-132

Pesaran, M.H., Y. Shin, and R.J. Smith. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16: 289-326.

Pugel, T.A. (2004). International Economics. Twelf Edition. McGraw- Hilll. New York.

Purnamasari, R. (2006). Analisis Faktorfaktor yang Mempengaruhi Produksi dan Impor Kedelai Indonesia. Program Studi Ekonomi Pertanian dan Sumberdaya Fakultas Pertanian IPB. Bogor.

Rachmawati. (1999). Analisis Perdagangan Kedelai di Indonesia (Penerapan Model Armington). Skripsi. Jurusan Ilmu-ilmu Sosial Ekonomi. IPB. Bogor.

Rahmina, D. (1999). Analisis Permintaan Ekspor dan Respon Penaaran Kedelai di Indonesia. Laporan Penelitian.Lembaga Penelitian IPB. Bogor.

Stephan, S. (2005). German Exports to The Euro Area – A Cointegration Approach. IMK Working Paper, June, 22 pages.