PENGARUH PENANAMAN MODAL ASING TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN ASEAN-6

Ari Mulianta Ginting

doi:10.30908/bilp.v9i1.15

Ari Mulianta Ginting Sekretariat Jenderal DPR-RI

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v9i1.15

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Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Panel Data Model, Neraca Perdagangan, Trade Balance

Abstract

Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perkembangan perdagangan negara-negara ASEAN-6 dan menganalisis pengaruh aliran FDI terhadap neraca perdagangan. Studi ini menggunakan pendekatan analisis deskriptif dan regresi data panel. Studi ini menunjukkan perkembangan neraca perdagangan ASEAN-6 dari tahun 2004-2013 secara total surplus. Berdasarkan hasil analisis regresi data panel, terdapat pengaruh yang positif antara pertumbuhan FDI, GDP dan sektor manufaktur dengan pertumbuhan neraca perdagangan di negara ASEAN-6. Sementara itu terdapat pengaruh negatif antara konsumsi domestik, dan nilai tukar riil terhadap pertumbuhan neraca perdagangan. Hasil analisis regresi data panel mengindikasikan pentingnya variabel pertumbuhan FDI. Hal ini mengimplikasikan perlunya negara-negara ASEAN-6 mengeluarkan kebijakan yang tepat untuk meningkatkan aliran masuk FDI, seperti perbaikan iklim investasi dan pemberian insentif fiskal.

This study sets out to explain the development of trade between ASEAN-6 countries and analyze the influence of FDI flow towards the balance of trade. This study utilizes descriptive analysis approach and panel data regression. This study shows the development of the balance of trade for ASEAN-6 trade from 2004-2013 were all surplus. Based on the panel data regression analysis, there is a positive influences of FDI, GDP, and manufacture sector on the balance of trade of ASEAN-6 countries. On the other hand, there is a negative influences of domestic consumption and real exchange on balance of trade. The analysis result from panel data regression indicates the importance of FDI growth variable. This implies a necessity for ASEAN-6 countries to issue policies that could enhance the inflow of FDI, such as improving investment climate and providing fiscal incentive.

Author Biography

Ari Mulianta Ginting, Sekretariat Jenderal DPR-RI

Pusat Pengkajian, Pengolahan Data dan Informasi (P3DI)

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