DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN KEMASAN ROKOK SINGAPURA TERHADAP EKSPOR ROKOK INDONESIA
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Abstract
Pemerintah Singapura telah melakukan beragam kebijakan pengendalian tembakau (tobacco control) untuk menekan jumlah perokok. Singapura termasuk salah satu negara di dunia yang menerapkan regulasi ketat dalam pengendalian produk tembakau. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperkirakan dampak penerapan kebijakan kemasan rokok Singapura terhadap ekspor rokok Indonesia. Kebijakan tersebut diasumsikan memiliki dampak sebagaimana kebijakan pengendalian konsumsi tembakau non-harga pada umumnya meskipun kebijakan tersebut belum diimplementasikan. Metode yang digunakan berupa analisis deskriptif yang dilengkapi dengan analisis ekonometri menggunakan Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) dengan sampel Triwulan III-2006 hingga Triwulan IV-2014. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa ekspor rokok Indonesia lebih dipengaruhi oleh re-ekspor Singapura dibandingkan dengan konsumsi domestiknya. Selain itu, kebijakan pengendalian tembakau non-harga secara statistik tidak berpengaruh terhadap konsumsi rokok di Singapura. Oleh sebab itu, Indonesia tidak perlu khawatir dengan rencana kebijakan kemasan rokok yang akan diterapkan. Pemerintah Indonesia harus aktif melakukan negosiasi apabila Singapura benar-benar menerapkan kebijakan kemasan rokok dalam rangka mendapatkan kompensasi perdagangan atas kebijakan tersebut.
The government of Singapore has implemented various tobacco control policies to reduce the number of smoker. Singapore is one of the countries in the world that implemented a tight regulation to control tobacco products. This study aims to estimate the potential impacts of Singapore’s cigarette plain packaging policy on the Indonesian cigarettes exports. As this policy is not yet implemented, it is assumed that the policy will have the same impacts as the common tobacco control policy, especially for the non-price policy. The study used descriptive analysis supported by econometrics analysis using Two-Stage Least Squares method (2SLS) using quarterly data from III-2006 to IV-2014. The results showed that the Indonesian cigarettes export is much more influenced by the Singapore’s re-exports rather than by the domestic consumption. Moreover, the non-price tobacco control policies do not have statistically significant effect on the cigarette consumption in Singapore. Therefore, Indonesia should not be worried about the possible implementation of the plain packaging policy. Indonesian government must actively negotiate if Singapore finally implements the plain packaging policy to get a compensation trade from this policy.
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