POTENSI DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN LARANGAN EKSPOR MINERAL LOGAM

Abstract

Ringkasan Eksekutif

Analisis ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis potensi dampak kebijakan larangan ekspor terhadap beberapa komoditas mineral logam pada 11 Juni 2023 sesuai Permendag No. 18 Tahun 2021, diantaranya Bauksit, Konsentrat Tembaga, Konsentrat Besi, Konsentrat Timbal/Mangan/Seng, dan Lumpur Anoda. Hasil analisis digunakan dalam penilaian terhadap sejumlah opsi kebijakan berikut: (i) Implementeasi kebijakan larangan ekspor pada 11 Juni 2023 sesuai amanat Permendag No. 18 Tahun 2021 (do nothing); (ii) Peninjauan kembali waktu pelaksanaan implementasi kebijakan larangan dengan memperhatikan kesiapan dalam negeri. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah model keseimbangan umum pada simulasi model GTAP dengan beberapa indikator seperti PDB, tenaga kerja, investasi dan lainnya yang didukung oleh data kinerja ekspor, progress smelter, serta data lainnya. Hasil simulasi berdasarkan kondisi faktual tingkat kemajuan dan fisik smelter menunjukkan bahwa implementasi kebijakan larangan ekspor apabila diterapkan pada 11 Juni 2023 berpotensi menghasilkan biaya (cost) sebagai berikut: potensi penurunan PDB sebesar 0,29%, penurunan tenaga kerja sektor tambang sebesar 4,2%, serta penurunan ekspor konsentrat mineral logam pada jangka pendek hingga USD 11,1 Miliar. Hal tersebut disebabkan oleh dampak ekspansi output dan nilai tambah produk turunan mineral logam yang belum mencapai level optimal. Terhadap potensi implikasi dampak tersebut, maka pilihan kebijakan mengarah kepada opsi kebijakan yaitu peninjauan kembali waktu pelaksanaan implementasi kebijakan larangan ekspor dengan memperhatikan kesiapan di dalam negeri. Pilihan kebijakan tersebut, sejalan dengan kebijakan Pemerintah yang melakukan penangguhan implementasi kebijakan larangan ekspor atas sejumlah komoditas mineral logam pada 2024.

Kata Kunci: Pembatasan Ekspor, Konsentrat Mineral Logam, Model GTAP

Executive Summary

This analysis aims to identify the potential impact of the export prohibition policy on several metals and concentrates comprising of Bauxite, Copper’s Concentrate, Iron’s Concentrate, Lead/Manganese/Zinc’s Concentrate, and Anode Mud based on Minister of Trade’s Regulation No. 18 of 2021.  The results of the analysis are used in assessing these following policy options: (i) the Implementation of the export prohibition policy in June, 11st 2023 according to Minister of Trade Regulation No. 18 of 2021 (do nothing) (ii) Reviewing and revising of time implementation of the policy with considering domestic situation. The method used in this analysis is general equilibrium using GTAP model simulation that computed impacts on indicators such as GDP, labor, investment and others and considered several factors as export performance, progress of the smelters and etc. The simulation conducted based on factual conditions of the smelter's progress show that implementation of the export prohibition policy on 11st June 2023 could cause following potential costs that are declining GDP by 0.29%, reduction in mining sector workforce by 4.2 % as well as the decreasing exports value of metal and concentrates in the short term by up to USD 11.1 Billion. This is due to output expansion and value added of derivative products which have not reached their optimal levels. Therefore, the results lead to one policy option that the Government should review the time implementation of the export prohibition policy considering our domestic condition. This recommendation is in line with policy that has been taken by the Government by suspending the implementation of the export prohibition policy on several metal and concentrates to 2024.

Key Words: Export Restriction, Metal and Concentrate, GTAP Model