APAKAH SUNK COST ENTRY BERPENGARUH PADA EKSPOR INDONESIA KE SINGAPURA?: PENDEKATAN AGGREGATE

Azis Muslim

doi:10.30908/bilp.v11i1.72

Azis Muslim Kementerian Perdagangan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v11i1.72

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Keywords: F21, C22, C32, O24, C46

Abstract

Bagi Indonesia, Singapura telah lama dikenal sebagai negara perantara (intermediary) perdagangan untuk ekspor maupun impor. Secara umum sunk cost entry to export merupakan pertimbangan untuk masuk ke pasar ekspor, namun dalam kondisi terdapatnya perantara perdagangan apakah sunk cost entry to export tidak menjadi pertimbangan untuk masuk ke pasar ekspor? Untuk mengetahui hal tersebut dilakukan penelitian dengan tujuan untuk menguji apakah sunk cost entry berpengaruh atau tidak untuk ekspor Indonesia ke Singapura. Model penelitian menggunakan model histerisis Baldwin-Krugman dengan pertimbangan penggunaan data aggregate dan lonjakan nilai tukar. Metode yang digunakan adalah perubahan koefisien pada saat structural break sedangkan nilainya diestimasi dengan model regresi Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sunk cost entry tidak memengaruhi ekspor Indonesia ke Singapura atau dengan kata lain tidak menjadi pertimbangan memasuki pasar ekspor Singapura. Temuan tersebut bermanfaat bagi eksportir dengan modal terbatas untuk menggunakan Singapura sebagai intermediary. Pemerintah sebagai fasilitator dapat menyarankan kepada eksportir pemula terutama eksportir dengan modal terbatas untuk menjadikan Singapura sebagai perantara dalam perdagangan.

Singapore has been known as an intermediary country for Indonesia’s export and import trade. Sunk cost entry is one of the exporter considerations to enter an export market. However, if there is an intermediary trade, does sunk cost still become a consideration? The purpose of this study is to examine whether the sunk cost entry affects Indonesian export to Singapore or not. This study uses Baldwin-Krugman’s Hysteresis model due to an aggregate data usage and a surge in the exchange rate. This study uses the coefficient changes method since structural break is happening and its value is estimated by the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) regression model. The result shows that sunk cost does not affect Indonesian exports to Singapore, or in another word it does not become a consideration to enter Singapore markets. It is important that the exporters with limited capital use Singapore as an intermediary. The Government should propose beginner exporters to choose Singapore as the intermediary country trade.

Author Biography

Azis Muslim, Kementerian Perdagangan

Pusat Pengkajian Kerjasama Perdagangan Internasional, Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan

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