THE IMPACT OF WORLD CPO PRICE CHANGE TOWARDS PRICES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN INDONESIA

Wisnu Winardi; Hadi Susanto; Kadim Martana

doi:10.30908/bilp.v11i2.66

Wisnu Winardi BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Hadi Susanto BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Kadim Martana Ministry of Environment and Forestry

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v11i2.66

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Keywords: CPO World Price, CGE Models, Price Taker, Price Influencer

Abstract

Paper ini menganalisis dampak perubahan harga CPO dunia terhadap harga-harga, aktivitas ekonomi, dan distribusi pendapatan rumah tangga di Indonesia dengan pendekatan model CGE. Model pertama mengasumsikan Indonesia tidak mampu memengaruhi harga, sedangkan model kedua mengasumsikan Indonesia mampu memengaruhi harga. Data utama yang digunakan bersumber dari Tabel Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi Indonesia tahun 2008. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa apabila Indonesia berperan sebagai penerima harga, peningkatan harga CPO dunia diperkirakan akan berdampak pada penguatan nilai tukar, penurunan tingkat harga, dan meningkatkan aktivitas ekonomi, namun sedikit mengurangi kemerataan distribusi pendapatan. Di sisi lain, penurunan harga CPO dunia akan memberikan dampak yang sebaliknya. Apabila Indonesia dapat berperan memengaruhi harga, perubahan harga CPO dunia diperkirakan akan berdampak sama dengan bila Indonesia tidak dapat memengaruhi harga, namun dengan nilai perubahan yang relatif lebih kecil. Hasil ini mengindikasikan bahwa Indonesia sebaiknya dapat berperan sebagai penerima harga ketika harga CPO dunia bertendensi meningkat dan berperan memengahuhi harga ketika harga CPO dunia bertendensi turun.

This paper analyzes the impact of world CPO change price towards prices, economic activities, and household income distribution using CGE Models. The first model assumes that Indonesia is a price taker, while the second model assumes that Indonesia could influence the price. The main data were taken from Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix 2008. The simulation results suggest that if Indonesia takes the role as a price taker, an increase in world CPO price will affect exchange rate, decrease prices, and improve economic activities, but it slightly worsened household income distribution. On the other hand, a decrease in world CPO price will bring about the opposite impacts respectively. Conversely, if Indonesia takes the role as a main price influencer, world CPO price change will lead to a similar result with less magnitude impacts. These findings suggest that Indonesia should be able to take the role as a price taker when world CPO price is increasing and as a main price influencer when world CPO price is decreasing.

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