ASEAN-Kanada Free Trade Agreement (FTA): Peluang Bagi Indonesia

Steven Raja Ingot; Dian Dwi Laksani

doi:10.30908/bilp.v13i1.316

Steven Raja Ingot Kementerian Perdagangan
Dian Dwi Laksani Kementerian Perdagangan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v13i1.316

Abstract Views: 1159 |

PDF Downloads: 1838

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Keywords: ASEAN-Canada FTA, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Perdagangan, Investasi, Economic Growth, Trade, Investment

Abstract

Abstrak

Senior Economic Officials Meetings (SEOM) ke-8 di Laos menghasilkan komitmen bersama ASEAN dan Kanada untuk melakukan feasibility study dalam kerangka kerja sama ASEAN-Kanada FTA. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menghitung dampak perjanjian perdagangan barang Indonesia pada ASEAN-Kanada FTA dengan model analisis Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) - Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) dengan Data Base versi 9. Penelitian ini menggunakan tiga simulasi yaitu (1) Indonesia bergabung ASEAN-Kanada FTA dengan penurunan tarif untuk semua komoditi sebesar 90% mengadopsi proposal modalitas ASEAN dalam Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), (2) penurunan tarif sebesar 90% tanpa Indonesia bergabung dalam ASEAN-Kanada FTA, (3) serta peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan hambatan non tarif sebesar 20%. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa dari sisi Makroekonomi Indonesia akan mendapat dampak positif peningkatan GDP sebesar 0,03% jika bergabung dalam ASEAN-Kanada FTA dibandingkan jika tidak bergabung. Indonesia akan mendapat dampak positif lebih besar jika terdapat peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan NTM sebesar 3,35% serta peningkatan investasi sebesar 8,53%. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi, penurunan output dan peningkatan impor didominasi oleh impor bahan baku dan barang modal yang digunakan untuk input industri, sehingga keberadaan impor bahan baku tetap diperlukan. Kajian ini merekomendasikan penurunan tarif, peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan NTM merupakan kebijakan yang sangat diperlukan.

Kata Kunci: ASEAN-Kanada FTA, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Perdagangan, Investasi

Abstract

At the 8th ASEAN Economic Senior Review Official Meetings (SEOM) in Laos, ASEAN and Canada committed to conduct a feasibility study within the framework of ASEAN-Canada FTA. This study aims to measures the impact of ASEAN-Canada FTA implementation to Indonesia using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – the 9th version of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The study run three different simulations (1) Indonesia joining the ASEAN-Canada with a 90% tariff reduction applied to all goods adopting ASEAN modality in Regional Comprehensice Economic Partnership (RCEP); (2) 90% Tariff reduction without Indonesia joining the ASEAN-Canada FTA, (3) improving trade facilitation and decreasing 20% non-tariff measures. Simulation result shown that from Macroeconomic perspective, Indonesia will get positive impact of increasing 0.03% GDP by joining the FTA instead of not joining. Indonesia will get higher impact by increasing trade facilitation and 8.53% investment and reducing 3.35% of NTM. Based on the results, the declining output and increasing import is dominated by import of raw materials and capital goods, therefore import of raw material remain important. This study recommended reducing tariff and NTM as well as improving trade facilitation are necessary for Indonesia.

Keywords: ASEAN-Canada FTA, Economic Growth, Trade, Investment

JEL Classification: F12, F13, F15

Author Biographies

Steven Raja Ingot, Kementerian Perdagangan

Pusat Pengkajian Kerjasama Perdagangan Internasional

Dian Dwi Laksani, Kementerian Perdagangan

Pusat Pengkajian Kerjasama Perdagangan Internasional

References

Aguiar, A, Narayanan, B, McDougall, R. (2016). An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base. Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Vol 1 (1), pp. 181-208

Armington, P.S. (1969). A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production. IMF Staff Papers, 16, pp. 159-178.

Barichello, R.R.& Yap, J.T. (2010). Three Year ASEAN-Canada Policy Research Programme: A Proposal. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

CABC. (2017). The ASEAN Advantage: Exploring Canada’s Trade Potential. Canada-ASEAN Business Council, Voncouver.

Economic Research Institute of ASEAN (ERIA) (2018) Joint Feasibility Study for an ASEAN – Canada Free Trade Agreement.

Furkon, Moh. Hami. (2015). Analisis Analisis Dampak Perjanjian ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Area (AKFTA) Bagi Indonesia: Pendekatan Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Versi 8, Skripsi, Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang.

Hertel, T.W., and M.E. Tsigas. (1997). “Structure of GTAP”, in Hertel, T.W. (ed.),

Global Trade Analysis: Modelling and Applications. Cambridge University Press,

Cambridge.

Hidayat, Agus Syarip. (2016). Dinamika Kerja sama Ekonomi Indonesia Dengan Anggota Organisasi Konferensi Islam (OKI): Potensi dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, Vol. 10 No.1, Juli 2016.

Ianchovichina, E., dan Mcdougall, R (2000). Theoritical Structure of Dynamic GTAP. GTAP Technical Paper No.17

Itakura, K. (2014). "Impact of Liberalization and Improved Connectivity and Facilitation in ASEAN. Journal of Asian Economics. Volume 35, pp 1-106.

Kenichi, Kawasaki. (2014). The Relative Significance of EPAs in Asia-Pasific. RIETI Discussion Paper Series 14-E-009. Japan

Laksani, D.D., dan Salam, A.R. (2016). Perkiraan Dampak ASEAN dan Hong Kong Free Trade Area (AHKFTA) terhadap Kinerja Perdagangan Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, Vol. 10 No.2, Desember 2016.

Manurung, H. (2016). Improving Free Trade Agreement (FTA): A Study on the European Union (EU) – Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), 2012 – 2016. Working Paper Series School of International Relations President University.

Safitriani, S. (2014). Perdagangan Internasional dan Foreign Direct Investment di Indonesia. Buletin lmiah Litbang Perdagangan, Vol. 8 (1), pp.93-116.

Soesastro, H. (2005). The Evolution of ASEAN+X Free Trade Agreements – Implication for Canada. Trade Working Papers No. 21999, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

Plummer, M.G., D. Cheong and S. Hamanaka. (2010). Methodology For Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreement. Manila: Asian Development Bank.

Raihan, S. (2015). “South Asian Economic Union –Challenges and Tasks Ahead”. South Asia Economic Journal September 2015. 16: 3S-18S

Woo, Y.P. (2005). Canada-ASEAN Economic Relations: Assessment and Prospects. Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

Yuventus, E. (2014). Implementasi ASEAN Free Trade Agreement Terkait Kinerja Perdagangan Indonesia: Pendekatan Model Gravitasi. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 8 No 1 Juli 2014.