DAMPAK ASEAN-CHINA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (ACFTA) TERHADAP KINERJA PEREKONOMIAN DAN SEKTOR PERTANIAN INDONESIA
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Abstract
Sektor pertanian Indonesia seharusnya memperoleh dampak positif dari ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). Namun demikian, kinerja sektor pertanian belum menunjukkan peningkatan yang berarti ketika sebagian besar komoditas pertanian telah diturunkan tarifnya melalui tahapan ACFTA. Studi ini meneliti dampak ACFTA terhadap kinerja sektor pertanian Indonesia sebelum dan sesudah ACFTA dengan menggunakan deskriptif analisis. Studi ini juga memprediksi kinerja perekonomian dan kinerja sektor pertanian setelah ACFTA diberlakukan secara penuh menggunakan metode ekonometrik dengan persamaan simultan. Hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa kinerja sektor pertanian Indonesia tidak lebih baik dibandingkan dengan sebelum implementasi ACFTA, dan diprediksi akan lebih buruk lagi setelah ACFTA diberlakukan sepenuhnya, akibat dari tingginya tekanan kompetisi dan kekakuan produsen domestik. Peningkatan kualitas infrastruktur domestik, pengembangan riset/teknologi serta penerapan regulasi yang mendukung daya saing merupakan kebijakan yang sangat diperlukan.
The ASEAN-China Frade Trade Agreement should positively influence Indonesia’s agricultural sector performance. Unfortunately, the current agricultural sector performance shows no signs of significant increase despite a decrease of tariffs on most agricultural commodities through ACFTA. This study sets out to examine the overall impact of ACFTA on Indonesian agricultural sector performance prior to and after the implementation of ACFTA through descriptive analysis. This study also predicts the overall economic performance and agricultural sector performance after the full implementation of ACFTA by utilizing econometric method with simultaneous equation. This study finds that the agricultural sector performance does not improve after the implementation of ACFTA and it argues further that it will weaken due to high pressure of competition and the rigidity of domestic producers. Quality improve on domestic infrastructure, research and technology development and regulations which enhance competitiveness are high priority policies to support Indonesia’s agricultural sector performance.
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