PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DAN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT DI INDONESIA

Suci Safitriani

doi:10.30908/bilp.v8i1.89

Suci Safitriani Badan Pusat Statistik

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v8i1.89

Abstract Views: 35930 |

PDF Downloads: 28538

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Keywords: FDI, Perdagangan Internasional, Kausalitas Granger, VECM, Impulse Response, Variance Decomoposition, International Trade

Abstract

Invesment (FDI) di Indonesia dengan menggunakan analisis regresi secara terpisah. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan terdapat hubungan satu arah antara ekspor dan FDI dan terdapat hubungan dua arah antara impor dan FDI di Indonesia. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa FDI memberikan dampak jangka panjang yang positif terhadap ekspor, sementara dalam jangka pendek, FDI berdampak negatif terhadap ekspor. Namun dalam hal impor, ditemukan bahwa FDI memiliki dampak positif terhadap impor meskipun secara statistik tidak signifikan. Oleh karena itu pemerintah perlu mengambil langkah untuk meningkatkan FDI di Indonesia, tidak hanya pada sektor domestik tetapi juga pada sektor yang berorientasi ekspor.

The objective of this study is to examine the effect of the flow of the international trade and foreign direct investment in Indonesia using a separate Regression analysis. The study found that there is a significant relation between export and FDI and between import and FDI. However, the effect of FDI on the export in the long run is positive while in the short run it was found negative and insignificant. Therefore, the Government needs to formulate policies to promote FDI at both national level as well as at the international level.

References

Antoni, (2008). Investasi Langsung Asing (FDI) Dan Perdagangan: Bukti Empiris Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Koperasi. Vol.10 No.2, Oktober 2008.

Association of South East Asian Nation [ASEAN]. (2004). Guide Book for Investing in ASEAN: Update 2004. Jakarta: Sekretariat ASEAN.

Appleyard, D.R., J.F.Field and S.L. Cobb. (2008). International Economics. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2013). Data Series Ekspor dan Impor Triwulan 1990-2012. Jakarta: BPS.

Bank Indonesia. (2010). Laporan Perkonomian Indonesia. Jakarta: BI.

Bank Indonesia. (2013). Data Series Triwulan FDI 1990-2012. Jakarta: BI

Dunning, J.H. (1998). The European internal market program and inbound foreign direct investment. In: J.H Dunning (Ed), Globalization, trade and foreign direct investment (pp. 49-115). Oxford:Elsevier.

Enders, W. (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series Second Edition. Hoboken: John Willey and Son, Inc.

Engle, R.F. dan C. W. J. Granger. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing, Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 2, March 251-279.

Fitriana, Y. (2005). Penanaman Modal Asing Langsung dan Hubungannya dengan Beberapa Indikator Makro Ekonomi Tahun 1989-2004 [Skripsi]. Jakarta: Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik.

Fontagné, L. dan M. Pajot. (2000). Foreign Trade and FDI Stocks in British, US and French Industries: Complements or Substitutes? Inward Investment, Technological Change and Growth, The Impact of Multinational Corporations on the UK Economy (Ed. N. Pain). Palgrave Macmillan.

Gujarati, D. (1995). Basic Econometrics Third & Fourth edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Gujarati, D. (2003). Basic Econometrics Third & Fourth edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Haddad, M., & Harrison, A. (1993). Are there positive spillovers from direct foreign Investment?Journal of Development Economics, 42(1), 51-74.

Nailu, Z.N. (2010). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Trade of African Countries. International Journal of Economics and Finance Vol. 2, No. 3; August 2010.

Lipsey, R.E., S.L. Blomstrom dan K. Kulchycky (1988). US and Swedish direct investment and export. R.E Baldwin (Ed.), Trade Policy Issues And Empirical Analysis (pp.259-297). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Liu, X. , Wang, C & Wei, Y. 2001. Causal links between foreign direct investment and trade in China. China Economic Review, 12 (2001), 190-202.

Pacheco-López, P. (2005). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Imports in Mexico. Mexico: Department of Economics University of Kent.

Pain, J.Y. & Wakelin, K. (1998). Export performance and the role of foreign direct investment. Manchester School (N.SS, 66), 62-88.

Mundell, R. A. (1957). “International Trade and Factor Mobility”. American Economic Review, 47, pp.321-335.

Pham, T.H.H. (2012). Temporal causality and the dynamics of foreign direct investment, exports and imports in Vietnam. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development:

An International and Comparative Review. Volume 21, Issue 1.

Pramadhani, M. , B. Rakesh Bissoondeeal and D. Nigel. (2007). FDI, Trade And Growth, A Causal Link? [Working Paper]. Birmingham (UK): Aston University.

Pramudita, R.S. (2012). Analisis Pengaruh Keterbukaan Perdagangan terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Penanaman Modal Asing, dan Tenaga Kerja Industri Besar dan Sedang dengan Pendekatan Vector Autoregessive [Skripsi]. Jakarta: Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik.

Prasetyawati, M.D . (2012). Kajian Utang Pemerintah Indonesia: Keter-kaitannya terhadap Perekonomian dan Faktorfaktor yang Meme-ngaruhi Debt Ratio Pemerintah Periode Triwulan III 1998- Triwulan III 2011 [Skripsi]. Jakarta: Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik.

Salvatore, D. (2007). International Economics. Prentice-Hall.

Skipton, Chuck. (2007). Trade Openness, Investment, and Long-Run Economic Growth. A working paper presented at the ‘07-‘08 Southern Economics Association (SEA) meetings New Orleans, La. November 18-21, 2007

Viva Bisnis News. (2012, 12 November). BI Ungkap Penyebab Ketimpangan Ekspor dan Impor RI. Diunduh tanggal 1 September 2013 dari http://bisnis.news.viva.co.id/news/read/ 366817-bi-ungkap-penyebabketimpangan- ekspor-dan-impor-ri.

Waheed, A., S. Tehseen dan Jawaid. (2010). Inward Foreign Direct Investment And Aggregate Imports: Time Series Evidence From Pakistan. International Economics and Finance Journal , Vol. 5, No. 1-2 (15. December 2010): pp. 33-43.

Yuliadi, I. (2008). Analisis Impor Indonesia: Pendekatan Persamaan Simultan. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Volume 9, Nomor 1, April 2008: 89 - 104.

Hailu, Z.H. (2010). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Trade of African Countries. International Journal of Economics and Finance Vol. 2, No. 3; August 2010. www.ccsenet.org/ijef.