TRADE COMPLEMENTARITY DAN EXPORT SIMILARITY SERTA PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP EKSPOR INDONESIA KE NEGARA-NEGARA ANGGOTA OKI

  • Lili Retnosari Statistics of Pulang Pisau Regency
  • Nasrudin . Institute of Statistic
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v12i1.281
Abstract Views: 1821 | PDF Downloads: 1128

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.
  
Keywords: Trade Complementarity, Export Similarity, OKI, Regresi Panel, OIC Countries, Panel Regression

Abstract

Pada tahun 2014, total ekspor Indonesia ke negara anggota OKI sekitar 14% dari total ekspor Indonesia sejak bergabung dengan OKI 1969. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk meneliti apakah produk ekspor Indonesia sesuai dengan produk impor yang diminta oleh negara OKI. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah trade complementarity dan export similarity index. Kedua indeks tersebut kemudian diuji pengaruhnya terhadap ekspor Indonesia dengan menggunakan model regresi panel untuk mengidentifikasi pasar ekspor potensial. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa negara anggota OKI adalah pasar ekspor yang potensial karena kesesuaian produk yang diimpor. Hal ini didukung oleh nilai trade complementarity indek yang tinggi dan cenderung meningkat serta nilai export similarity indek yang cenderung menurun selama periode 2000-2014. Hal itu diperkuat dengan hasil regresi panel yang menunjukkan bahwa kedua indeks memberikan dampak positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor Indonesia. Negara negara anggota OKI yang merupakan pasar ekspor potensial adalah Turki, Mesir, Yordania, Djibouti, Uni Emirat Arab, Bangladesh, Pakistan, dan Nigeria. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi Pemerintah untuk lebih meningkatkan ekspor ke negara-negara potensial melalui promosi dan pameran dagang secara lebih intensif.

 

In 2014, total Indonesian export to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries reached 14% of its total exports since the country joined the OIC in 1969. This study examines whether Indonesia’s export products complement with the OIC member countries’s import products. This study uses trade complementarity and export similarity index. Furthermore, those indexes tested the impact on Indonesia’s export to the OIC member countries by using panel regression to identify the potential market. The results show that the OIC member countries are the potential export market because their import products match with the Indonesia’s export products. It is indicated by high trade complementarity index that tends to rise and export similarity index which tends to decrease from 2000-2014. This is reinforced by panel regression results that conclude that both indexes give a significant positive effect to boost Indonesia’s export. The OIC member countries that are potential export markets according to the model are Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Djibouti, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nigeria. Therefore, the government needs to increase export to potential countries through more intensive trade promotion and exhibition.

Author Biographies

Lili Retnosari, Statistics of Pulang Pisau Regency
Penulis merupakan pegawai di Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Pulang Pisau, Kalimantan Tengah
Nasrudin ., Institute of Statistic
Penulis merupakan dosen di Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik, Jakarta

References

Abidin, et al. (2013). The Determinants of Exports between Malaysia and The OIC Member Countries: A Gravity Model Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5, 12–19.

Alhayat, A.P. (2011). Analisis Struktur dan Potensi Perdagangan Indonesia-Turki. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan,

Vol.5 No.1.

Amanda, C.F. (2012). Kinerja Ekspor Komoditi Utama Indonesia ke Delapan Negara Mitra Dagang Utama Tahun 2000-2010 [Skripsi]. Jakarta: Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik.

Austria, M.S. (2004). The Pattern of IntraASEAN Trade in the Priority Goods Sectors. REPSF Project No. 03/006e.

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2017). Produk Domestik Bruto Indonesia menurut Pengeluaran Tahun 2012 - 2016. Jakarta: BPS.

Baltagi, B.H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data 3rd edition. Southern Gate: John Willey & Sons.

Chandran, B.P. S. (2010). Trade Complementarity and Similarity between India and Asean Countries in the context of the RTA. MPRA Paper No. 29279.

Drysdale, P. (1967). Japan, Australia and New Zealand: the Prospects for Western Integration. Economic Record, 9.

Drysdale, et al. (2000). China’s Trade Efficiency: Measurement and Determinants. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 22(2):62-84.

Firmansyah, Dede. (2013). Kajian Ekspor tekstil dan Produk Tekstil Indonesia ke Delapan Negara Tujuan Ekspor Utama Tahun 2000-2011 [Skripsi]. Jakarta: Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik.

Greene, W.H. (2012). Econometric analysis 7th edition. USA: Prentice Hall.

Grubel, G. & Lloyd, P.J. (1971). The Empirical Measurement of IntraIndustry Trade. Economic Record, Vol.47, 494-517

Gujarati, D. & Porter, D.C. (2008). Basic Econometrics 5th edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Hapsari, I.M. & Mangunsong, C. (2006). Determinants of AFTA Members’ Trade Flows and Potential for Trade Diversion. Asia-Pasific Research and Training Network on Trade Working Paper Series, No.21.

Hatab, A.A., Romstad, E., & Xuexi, H. (2010). Determinants of Egyptian

Agricultural Exports: a Gravity Model Approach. SciRes Modern Economy, 1, 134-143.

Head, K. (2003). Gravity for Beginners. Diakses pada tanggal 6 Juni 2017

melalui http://faculty.arts.ubc.ca/nmalhotra/490/Articles/KHead%20on%20 gravity.pdf.

Hermawan, I. (2015). Daya Saing Rempah Indonesia di Pasar ASEAN Periode Pra dan Pasca Krisis Ekonomi Global. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, Vol. 9, No, 2.

Ika, A. (22 Mei 2016). Indonesia Perkuat Promosi Perdagangan ke Negara

Anggota OKI. Diakses pada Mei 2017 melalui http://ekonomi.kompas.com/read/2016 /05/22/200000326/Indonesia.Perkuat. Promosi.Perdagangan.ke.Negara.Ang gota.OKI.

Kementerian Perdagangan. (2010). Kajian Kelayakan Pembentukan FTA Indonesia – Mesir. Jakarta: Kemendag.

Kim, S.J. (2013). Trade Complementarity Between South Korea And Her Major Trading Countries: Its Changes Over The Period Of 2005-2009. World Review of Business Research, Vol.3, No.2. pp.64-83.

Li, K., Song, L. & Zhao, X. (2008). Component Trade and China’s Global

Economic Integration. UNU-WIDER Research Paper No.2008/101.

Lipsey, R.G. dkk. (1995). Pengantar Makroekonomi Jilid Satu (Edisi Kesepuluh). Terjemahan J. Wasana dan Kirbrandoko. Jakarta: Binarupa

Aksara.

Mankiw, N.G. (2013). Macroeconomics 8th Edition. New York: Worth Publisher.

Michaely, M. (1996). Trade Preferential Agreements in Latin America: An Ex Ante Assessment. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 1583.

Mubeen. (2016). Toward Measurement and Determinant of Export Diversification: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, Vol. 10. No.3. pp.588-605.

Nasrudin, et al. (2014). China-ASEAN Free Trade: Complementary or Competition. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF), 3(4), 23-31.

OIC. (2016). About OIC. Diakses pada Juni 2017 melalui http://oic-oci.org.

Plummer, et al. (2010). Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade

Agreements. Manila: Asian Development Bank.

Prasetyo, O.R. (2015). Analisis Daya Saing dan Pengaruhnya terhadap Ekspor Produk Elektronik Indonesia ke Mitra Dagang dari ASEAN Periode 2000- 2013 [Skripsi]. Jakarta: Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik.

Pusat Kebijakan Perdagangan Luar Negeri. (2013). Kajian Potensi Pengembangan Ekspor ke Pasar Non Tradisional. Jakarta: Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Kebijakan Perdagangan.

Shepherd, B. (2015). Product Standards and Export Diversification. Journal of Economic Integration, Vol.30, No.2, June 2015, 300-333.

Sohn, C.H. (2001). A Gravity Model Analysis of Korea’s Trade Patterns and the Effects of a Regional Trading Arrangement. ICSEAD Working Paper Series Vol. 2001-09.

Sultan and Haque. (2014). Potential Export Divesification in Saudi Arabia. Journal of American Science, Vol.10, No.3, pp.16-24.

Sunardi, D. (2015). Analisis Daya Saing dan Faktor Penentu Ekspor Komoditas Unggulan Indonesia ke Organisasi Kerjasama Islam (OKI) [Tesis]. Bogor: Institut Pertanian Bogor.

Trade Map. (2016). Data Ekspor Indonesia ke Amerika dan Negara-Negara OKI. Diunduh pada Agustus 2017 melalui http://www.trademap.org/.

UNCTADStat. (2016). Data Ekspor dan Impor Kelompok Komoditas SITC

Indonesia dan Negara-Negara OKI. Diunduh pada Juni 2017 melalui http://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/Report Folders/reportFolders.aspx/.

Waheed and Abbas. (2015). Potential Export Markets for Bahrain: A Panel Data Analysis. International Journal of Trade, Economics, and Finance, Vol.6, No.3, pp.165-169.

Wang, L. (2015). An Analysis of Trade Structure, Comparative Advantage and Complementarity of Agricultural Products between China and the

Middle East Asian Countries. Asian Agricultural Research 2015, 7(5), 14- 20, 24.

Wang, P.Z., & Liu, X.J. (2015). Comparative Analysis of Export Similarity Index between China dan EU. International Conference on Management Science and Management Innovation (MSMI 2015).

World Bank. World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS). Diunduh pada

Agustus 2017 melalui http://wits.worldbank.org/.

Yu, C. & Qi, C. (2015). Research on the Complementarity and Comparative Advantages of Agricultural Product Trade between China and CEE Countries. Journal of Service Science and Management, Vol.8, pp.201-208.

Published
2018-07-31
How to Cite
Retnosari, L., & ., N. (2018). TRADE COMPLEMENTARITY DAN EXPORT SIMILARITY SERTA PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP EKSPOR INDONESIA KE NEGARA-NEGARA ANGGOTA OKI. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 12(1), 21-46. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v12i1.281
Section
Articles