FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI DAN ESTIMASI TARIF EKUIVALEN NTBs EKSPOR KAYU LAPIS INDONESIA
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Abstract
Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ekspor kayu lapis dengan menggunakan Gravity Model, dan menghitung Nilai Tarif Ekuivalen dari Non Tariff Barriers (NTBs) kayu lapis Indonesia di negara tujuan. Berdasarkan pendekatan Gravity Model (Model Gravitasi), aliran perdagangan potensial diperoleh dengan melakukan subtitusi seluruh data kedalam persamaan gravity. Fitted trade flow dari persamaan gravity model dianggap sebagai aliran perdagangan potensial. Perbedaan antara aliran perdagangan aktual dan potensial diindikasikan sebagai tarif ekuivalen dari NTBs. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap ekspor kayu lapis Indonesia yaitu Gross Domestic Product (GDP) riil Indonesia dan negara tujuan, Indek Harga Konsumen (IHK) Indonesia dan negara tujuan, jarak ekonomi, nilai tukar dan krisis keuangan tahun 2010. Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan negara Uni Eropa seperti Inggris dan Belgia memiliki rata-rata tarif ekuivalen NTBs paling besar. Sistem Verifikasi Legalitas Kayu (SVLK) untuk legalitas produk kayu dapat dijadikan sebagai strategi untuk menghadapi NTBs yang ada di negara tujuan ekspor.
This study sets out to analyze factors that influence plywood exports utilizing the Gravity Model and assess the equivalent tariff value of Non Trade Barriers plywood on destination countries. Based on the Gravity Model approach, a potential of flow of trade is obtained through substituting the whole data into gravity equation. Fitted trade flow from the Gravity Model equation is considered as a potential trade flow. The difference between actual and potential trade flow is indicated by the NTB equivalent tariff. The result shows factors that are influential on plywood exports notably the GDPs of Indonesia and destination countries, Consumer Index Price in Indonesia and destination countries, economic distance, exchange value and economic crisis in 2010. In addition, European Union such as England and Belgium have the highest average for NTB equivalent tariff. Verification System of Plywood legality is one alternative that can be deployed as a strategy when confronting NTB on destination countries.
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