EXCHANGE RATES ELASTICITY OF EXPORTS IN ASEAN: THE ROLE OF GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS
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Abstract
Abstrak
Perdebatan tentang pelemahan hubungan antara nilai tukar dan ekspor telah meningkat dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, dan meningkatnya tren perdagangan terkait rantai nilai global (Global Value Chain/GVC) diasumsikan menjadi sumber melemahnya hubungan di antara keduanya. Dengan menggunakan data spesifik industri manufaktur, studi ini bertujuan untuk menyelidiki dampak GVC pada hubungan Nilai Tukar Efektif Riil (Real Effective Exchange Rate/REER) dan ekspor di empat negara ASEAN. Estimasi dilakukan menggunakan regresi Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) untuk periode sampel dari tahun 2009 hingga 2015. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa di Filipina, koefisien elastisitas nilai tukar ekspor dan partisipasi ke GVC tidak signifikan secara statistik. Sebaliknya di Indonesia dan Malaysia, secara rata-rata, integrasi ke GVC dengan berbagai pengukuran akan menurunkan elastisitas ekspor terhadap perubahan REER sekitar 70% sampai 89%. Lebih lanjut, estimasi terhadap data Thailand dan kelompok empat negara ASEAN menunjukkan bahwa partisipasi pada GVC mengubah nilai dan tanda elastisitas ekspor terhadap REER.
Kata Kunci: Ekspor, Nilai Tukar, Rantai Nilai Global
Abstract
The debate on the issue of the disconnected relationship between exchange rates and exports has risen in recent years, with the growing trend of Global Value Chain (GVC)-related trade assumed to be the source of the weakening link between them. By employing manufacturing industry-specific data, this study aims to investigate the impact of GVC on the nexus of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and exports in four ASEAN countries. The estimations are conducted using Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) regression for the sample period from 2009 to 2015. The findings of this study suggest that for the Philippines, the coefficients of exchange rate elasticity of export and participation to GVC are not statistically significant. Conversely, in the case of Indonesia and Malaysia, integration to GVC, with various measurements, will reduce the REER elasticity of exports by around 70% to 89% on average. Furthermore, the estimation data on Thailand and a group of four countries implies that the presence of GVC changes both the value and the sign of REER elasticity of exports.
Keywords: Export, Exchange Rates, Global Value Chain
JEL Classification: F14, F15, F31
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