THE IMPACTS OF FINAL DEMAND OF INDONESIA’S EXPORTED PRODUCTS ON DOMESTIC INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT

Aditya P Alhayat

doi:10.30908/bilp.v7i2.111

Aditya P Alhayat Kementerian Perdagangan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v7i2.111

Abstract Views: 590 |

PDF Downloads: 342

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Keywords: Nilai Tambah, Rantai Nilai Global, Tabel Input-Output Dunia, Value Added, Global Value Chain, World Input-Output Table

Abstract

Statistik perdagangan internasional dapat menyebabkan interpretasi yang kurang lengkap tentang pentingnya perdagangan internasional, terkait dengan sistem pencatatannya dan semakin meningkatnya globalisasi proses produksi barang. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi sejauh mana perekonomian Indonesia bergantung pada permintaan akhir di suatu pasar ekspor tertentu dan dampaknya terhadap penciptaan pendapatan dan lapangan kerja ketika terjadi fragmentasi produksi global. Analisis ini menggunakan pendekatan global value chain dan Tabel Input-Output Dunia. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa nilai tambah dan lapangan kerja sebagai akibat dari pemenuhan permintaan akhir di negara maju lebih tinggi daripada yang dihasilkan dari pemenuhan permintaan akhir di negara berkembang. Peningkatan integrasi produksi di wilayah yang sama (Asia Timur atau ASEAN) dapat menjadi strategi yang efektif untuk mempengaruhi peningkatan pendapatan dan kesempatan kerja di Indonesia secara langsung dan tidak langsung.

The conventional trade statistics may lead to an incomplete interpretation on the importance of international trade, due to its recording system and the increasing globalization of production process. The global value chain approach and the World Input Output Table were employed. This paper aims to estimate the extent to which Indonesia’s economy relies on the final demand of the particular export market in term of generating incomes and employment when the fragmentation of global production exists. The results show that value added and employments induced by final demand in advanced economies are higher than those generated by final demand in developing economies. Enhancing production integration within the same region (East Asia or ASEAN) can be an effective strategy to induce higher Indonesia’s income and employment directly and indirectly.

Author Biography

Aditya P Alhayat, Kementerian Perdagangan

Pusat Pengkajian Kebijakan Perdagangan Luar Negeri, Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Kebijakan Perdagangan, Kementerian Perdagangan

References

Armstrong, M and M. Burt. (2012). Adding Value to Trade Measures: Understanding Canada’s Role in Global Value Chains. Ottawa: The Conference Board of Canada.

Aswicahyono, H. and C. Manning. (2011). Exports and Job Creation in Indonesia Before and After the Asian Financial Crisis. Departmental Working Papers 2011-11, Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

Baldwin, R. (2006). Globalisation: The Great Unbundling(s). Globalisation Challenges for Europe. Helsinki: Office of the Prime Minister of Finland.

Baldwin, R. and A. Venables. (2010). Spiders and Snakes: Offshoring and Agglomeration in the Global Economy. NBER Working Papers No. 16611.

Choy, K. M. (2009). Trade Cycles in a Reexport Economy: The Case of Singapore. Economic Growth Centre Working Paper No. 2009/05, Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University.

Commission des Finances du Sénat. (2011). Globalization of Industrial Production Chains and Measurement of Trade in Value Added. Accessed on 4 April 2013 from http://www.wto.org.

Feridhanusetyawan, T. (2002). The Social Impact of the Indonesian Economic Crisis: Labour Market Adjustments. EADN Regional Project.

Hummels, D., J. Ishii, and K, Yi. (2001). The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 54 (1), pp. 75-96.

Johnson, R. C. and G. Noguera. (2012). Accounting for Intermediates: Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 86 (2), pp. 224-236.

Koopman, R., Z. Wang, and S. Wei. (2012). Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross Exports. NBER Working Paper No. 18579.

Los, B., M. Timmer and G. de Vries. (2012). China and the World Economy: A Global Value Chain Perspective on Exports, Incomes and Jobs. Research Memorandum GD-128, University of Groningen, Groningen Growth and Development Centre.

Maurer, A. and C. Degain. (2010). Globalization and Trade Flows: What You See is Not What You Get! WTO Staff Working Paper ERSD-2010-12.

Meng, B., Y. Fang, and N. Yamano. (2012). Measuring Global Value Chains and Regional Economic Integration: An International Input–Output Approach. IDE Discussion Papers No. 362.

Miller, R. E. and P. D. Blair. (2009). Input- Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. UK: Cambridge University Press, 2nd Edition.

Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia. (2010). Strategic Plan of Ministry of Trade 210-2014. Accessed on 3 September 2010 from www.kemendag.go.id

Pula, G. and T. A. Peltonen. (2009). Has Emerging Asia decoupled? An Analysis of Production and Trade Linkages Using the Asian International Input-Output Table. European Central Bank Working Paper Series No. 993.

Riad, N., et al. (2012). Changing Patterns of Global Trade. IMF Strategy, Policy, and Review Department No. 12/1.

Scilab 5.3.3. Accessed on 15 November 2012 from http://www.scilab.org/en/ download/5.3.3.

Singapore Department of Statistics. Accessed on 13 June 2013 from http:// www.singstat.gov.sg

Stehrer, R. (2012). Trade in Value Added and the Value Added in Trade. WIOD Working Paper No. 8.

Stehrer, R., N. Foster, and G. de Vries. (2012). Value Added and Factors in Trade: A Comprehensive Approach. WIOD Working Paper No. 7.

Timmer, M. P. (Ed.). (2012). The World Input- Output Database (WIOD): Contents, Sources and Methods. WIOD Working Paper No. 10.

Timmer, M. P. et al. (2012b). Fragmentation, Incomes, and Jobs. An Analysis of European Competitiveness. WIOD Working Paper No. 9.

Timmer, M.P. et al. (2012a). New Measures of European Competitiveness: A Global Value Chain Perspective. Background paper for the WIOD project presentationat the high-level conference on “Competitiveness, Trade, Environment and Jobs in Europe: Insights from the New World Input Output Database (WIOD),” April 16 2012.

United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade). (2013). Accessed on 1 June 2013 from http:// wits.worldbank.org/wits.

Wilson, D. and R. Purushothaman. (2003). Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050. Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No. 99

World Input-Output Database (WIOD). Accessed on 18 May 2013 from http:// www.wiod.org.

WTO and IDE-JETRO. (2011). Trade Patterns and Global Value Chains in East Asia: From Trade in Goods to Trade in Tasks. Accessed on 30 March 2013 from http://www.wto.org.