2026-04-19T01:55:51Z https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/oai

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/135 2022-10-31T16:06:43Z bilp:ART

DEKOMPOSISI PERTUMBUHAN DAN DIVERSIFIKASI EKSPOR NON MIGAS INDONESIA Alhayat, Aditya Paramitha Diversifikasi Ekspor Marjin Intensif Marjin Ekstensif Export Diversification Intensive Margin Extensive Margin F10 F43 Studi ini ditujukan untuk mengetahui peran komponen pertumbuhan ekspor non migas Indonesia yang pada tahun 2010 mencatatkan pertumbuhan signifikan, sekaligus untuk menganalisis struktur ekspor. Pada dasarnya, studi ini mengikuti kajian yang dilakukan oleh Amiti dan Freud (2007) untuk mengetahui kontribusi produk baru terhadap pertumbuhan ekspor dengan menggunakan dua metode yang saling melengkapi. Metode pertama adalah dekomposisi pertumbuhan ekspor menjadi produk baru, produk menghilang, dan produk bertahan yang menyediakan informasi mengenai besarnya penciptaan dan pengurangan ekspor. Metode kedua adalah Indeks Feenstra atas varietas pertumbuhan ekspor netto yang menyediakan suatu indikasi pentingnya varietas baru dalam perdagangan. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekspor non migas Indonesia lebih ditopang oleh tingginya pertumbuhan ekspor untuk produk-produk yang telah ada sebelumnya (margin intensif) daripada produk-produk baru (margin ekstensif), terutama selama pemulihan ekonomi di tahun 2010. Selain itu, kecilnya pertumbuhan varietas netto menunjukkan kurang berpengaruhnya margin ekstensif pada pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia. Berdasarkan wilayah, Asia masih menjadi tujuan ekspor utama yang paling tinggi menyumbang margin intensif maupun margin ekstensif. Oleh karena itu, pemerintah diharapkan dapat menjaga stabilitas produk-produk ekspor yang telah ada serta memelihara pasar produk ekspor di kawasan Asia. This study aims to determine the role of export growth components of the Indonesian non oil and gas which experienced significant growth in 2010 as well as to analyze the recent export structure. Basically, the study follows the paper of Amiti and Freud (2007) which examined the contribution of new varieties to export growth using two complementary methods. The first is a decomposition of export growth into new, disappearing, and existing varieties and offers more information on the magnitude of export creation and destruction. The second is the Feenstra Index of net export variety growth which provides an indication of the importance of new varieties in trade. The results of analysis showed that the growth of Indonesian export of non oil and gas was mainly driven by high export growth of existing products (the intensive margin) rather than in new varieties (the extensive margin), particularly during the economic recovery in 2010. In addition, the small net variety growth indicates the less importance of extensive margin on Indonesian export growth. According to the region, Asia is still a major export destination contributing for the highest intensive and extensive margin. Therefore, the government is expected to maintain the sustainability of the existing export products and the Asia market. Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2012-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/135 10.30908/bilp.v6i1.135 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 6 No. 1 (2012); 1-18 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 6 No 1 (2012); 1-18 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v6i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/135/93 Copyright (c) 2017 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/136 2022-10-31T16:16:20Z bilp:ART

IJ-EPA DAN IMPLIKASINYA TERHADAP KINERJA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA - JEPANG Salam, Aziza Rahmaniar Rayadiani, Sefiani Lingga, Immanuel Indonesia-Jepang Perdagangan Bebas Surat Keterangan Asal Indonesia-Japan Free Trade Certificate of Origin F13 F14 Indonesia dan Jepang telah menandatangani perjanjian kerjasama Indonesia Jepang Economic Partnership Agreement (IJ-EPA) pada tahun 2007. Untuk mewujudkan kesepakatan perdagangan bebas tersebut dan untuk menghindari adanya trade diversion sebagai dampak dari tarif preferensi, maka kedua negara mempersyaratkan Surat Keterangan Asal (SKA) untuk mensertifikasi asal barang yang diperdagangkan. Berdasarkan hasil analisa data statistik dan survey diperoleh kesimpulan bahwa pemanfaatan SKA Form IJEPA ternyata relatif lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan kesepakatan perdagangan bebas lainnya yang telah ditandatangani dan diimpelementasikan di Indonesia. Ketidakoptimalan yang terjadi dikarenakan beberapa faktor antara lain: masih adanya penggunaan Form A dalam ekspor ke Jepang, keterbatasan sumber daya manusia (SDM) yang terdapat di berbagai IPSKA, keengganan pencantuman struktur biaya dalam SKA Form IJ-EPA, dan kurangnya sosialisasi mengenai fasilitas IJ-EPA. Dari segi perdagangan bilateral, kesepakatan perdagangan bebas IJ-EPA berdampak pada perubahan pola impor Indonesia dari Jepang dimana terdapat beberapa produk yang mengalami lonjakan, seperti produk Kendaraan Bermotor dan Mesin Disel. Sebaliknya, implementasi IJ-EPA tidak memiliki dampak yang berarti terhadap pola ekspor Indonesia ke Jepang. In 2007 Indonesia and Japan signed a partnership agreement of Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJ-EPA). In order to implement the IJ-EPA and to prevent trade diversion as an impact of tariff preferences, both governments required the Certificate of Origin (COO) scheme. This study elaborates the use of COO-IJ-EPA and the impact of IJ-EPA on bilateral trade performances between the two countries. According to data analysis and survey, it was found that the number of COO-IJ-EPA was the lowest compared to other free trade agreements. The low share of the COO-IJ-EPA was caused by the following factors: the use of Form A as an alternative choice in export activity, inadequate human resources at the institutions issuing COO, reluctance to disclose the production cost structure and the lack of socialization in regards with trade facilitation under IJ-EPA scheme. Bilateral agreement under IJ-EPA has also brought impact to the Indonesia’s import pattern with Japan. After the implementation of the agreement, Indonesia’s import for certain products increased significantly, such as importation of automotive products and diesel machines. On the contrary, the agreement did not have significant impact to Indonesia’s export pattern. Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2012-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/136 10.30908/bilp.v6i1.136 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 6 No. 1 (2012); 19-36 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 6 No 1 (2012); 19-36 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v6i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/136/94 Copyright (c) 2017 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/137 2022-10-31T16:08:22Z bilp:ART

ANALISIS FAKTOR DAN PROYEKSI KONSUMSI PANGAN NASIONAL: KASUS PADA KOMODITAS: BERAS, KEDELAI DAN DAGING SAPI Nur, Yudha Hadian Nuryati, Yati Resnia, Ranni Santoso, Ahmad Sigit Bahan Pangan Estimasi Konsumsi Model Ekonometrika Food Product Estimate Consumption Econometric Model Q18 C01 Ketahanan pangan merupakan isu yang selalu menjadi perhatian pemerintah Indonesia. Hal ini terbukti dengan tingginya intensitas kebijakan pada pasar bahan pangan pokok. Studi ini bertujuan: 1) mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat konsumsi beras, kedelai dan daging sapi secara nasional; 2) mengestimasi elastisitas permintaan dan penawaran beras, kedelai, dan daging sapi; 3) mengestimasi konsumsi beras, kedelai, dan daging sapi untuk periode 2011 – 2013; 4) merekomendasikan kebijakan terkait produksi dan konsumsi beras, kedelai dan daging sapi. Analisis ini menggunakan metode OLS untuk mengestimasi elastisitas penawaran dan permintaan, serta LA/AIDS model untuk mengestimasi konsumsi komoditi tersebut. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi beras dan kedelai inelastis terhadap harga, sedangkan konsumsi daging sapi elastis terhadap harga daging sapi itu sendiri. Analisis proyeksi konsumsi menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi beras, kedelai dan daging sapi diperkirakan akan meningkat 2,2 %, 0,8%, dan 4% per tahun. Perlu dilakukan upaya-upaya dalam rangka peningkatan produksi, produktivitas dan upaya stabilisasi pasokan dan harga untuk menjamin keterjangkauan konsumsi pangan. Food security has always been an imperative issue for any ruling Indonesian government. Highly-regulated staple foods market indicates their strategic roles in the Indonesian economy. The objectives of this paper are 1) to identify factors affecting the level of national consumption on rice, soybeans and beef; 2) to estimate supply and demand elasticity of rice, soybeans and beef; 3) to project the consumption of rice, soybeans and beef for 20112013; 4) to formulate a policy recommendation to sustain production and consumption of rice, soybeans and beef. This paper uses Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method to estimate supply and demand elasticity and Linear Approximation from Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) method to estimate the consumption of respective food commodities. The result shows that consumption of rice and soybeans are inelastic to their own prices while the consumption of beef is elastic to its own price. Consumption projection of the commodities shows that by 2013, consumption of rice, soybeans and beef will increase annually by 2.2%, 0.8% and 4%, respectively. It is necessary to issue the policies to increase production, productivity, and to have the stability of supply and price of respective commodities. Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2012-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/137 10.30908/bilp.v6i1.137 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 6 No. 1 (2012); 37-52 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 6 No 1 (2012); 37-52 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v6i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/137/95 Copyright (c) 2017 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/138 2022-10-31T16:09:09Z bilp:ART

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN BEA KELUAR TERHADAP EKSPOR DAN INDUSTRI PENGOLAHAN KAKAO Syadullah, Makmun Bea Keluar Efektif Kualitas Biji Kakao Export Duties Effective Quality Cocoa Beans H25 Analisis ekspor kakao dan perkembangan industri kakao sebelum dan sesudah diterapkannya pajak ekspor dilakukan dengan pendekatan analisis deskriptif. Data yang digunakan dalam analisis adalah data sekunder yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik. Dalam rangka mendorong perkembangan industri pengolahan kakao, pada tahun 2010 pemerintah memberlakukan kebijakan pajak ekspor biji kakao. Kebijakan ini bertujuan untuk menghambat ekspor biji kakao dan untuk meningkatkan pasokan biji kakao industri dalam negeri. Data menunjukkan bahwa setelah pemberlakuan bea keluar, ekspor biji kakao mengalami penurunan dan jumlah perusahaan pengolahan kakao mengalami peningkatan. Namun demikian, industri pengolahan kakao belum beroperasi dalam kapasitas penuh. Rendahnya kualitas biji kakao yang diproduksi di Indonesia merupakan faktor utamanya. Untuk itu direkomendasikan agar pendapatan pemerintah dari bea keluar ekspor biji kakao dimanfaatkan kembali untuk pembinaan petani dalam meningkatkan kualitas biji kakao. The study uses a descriptive analysis in comparing cocoa exports and development of the cocoa industry before and after the imposition of export duty. The analysis is based on the secondary data taken from the Central Agency of Statistics.To foster the development of the cocoa processing industry, in 2010 the government has issued a policy to impose export duties on the export of cocoa beans. This policy is aimed to hamper cocoa beans export and to boost cocoa beans supply to domestic industry. The available information shows that after its imposition there has been a decline in cocoa export and an increase the number of cocoa processing companies. However, the cocoa processing industry has not yet operated in its full capacity. This is caused by the low quality of cocoa beans produced in Indonesia. It is then recommended that the government’s revenue from cocoa beans export should be returned back to farmers in improving the quality of cocoa beans. By doing so, the farmer will be compensated by the government in the form of improved and adequate infrastructure in the production center of cocoa beans, as well as provision of higher quality seeds and better counseling. Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2012-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/138 10.30908/bilp.v6i1.138 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 6 No. 1 (2012); 53-68 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 6 No 1 (2012); 53-68 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v6i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/138/99 Copyright (c) 2017 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/139 2022-10-31T16:09:43Z bilp:ART

KINERJA DAYA SAING PRODUK PERIKANAN INDONESIA DI PASAR GLOBAL Natalia, Deasi Nurozy, . Perdagangan Internasional Ikan Daya Saing RCA International Trade Fish Competitiveness Revealed Comparative Advantage F10 F14 Di pasar perikanan dunia, Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara eksportir utama. Selama tahun 2005-2009, volume ekspor ikan dan udang dari Indonesia menurun masing-masing sebesar 1,9% dan 3,7% per tahun. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk melihat apakah penurunan tersebut disebabkan oleh daya saing yang rendah atau faktor lain. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), yang merupakan salah satu metode yang digunakan untuk mengukur keunggulan komparatif komoditas di pasar tertentu. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa selama 2007-2009 ada 46 komoditas perikanan dalam HS 6-digit yang memiliki indeks RCA lebih besar dari satu, yang menunjukkan daya saing kuat di pasar internasional. Beberapa diantaranya bahkan mengalami peningkatan daya saing. Sementara itu, beberapa komoditas memiliki daya saing yang cenderung menurun dan berfluktuasi. Sisanya sekitar 71 komoditas memiliki daya saing lemah (RCA indeks lebih kecil dari satu). Oleh karena itu, untuk meningkatkan daya saing yang ada, perlu beberapa usaha seperti promosi di pasar domestik maupun pasar internasional; meningkatkan kualitas; mendorong dunia perbankan untuk meningkatkan akses ke modal kerja; memperbaiki infrastruktur; menciptakan nilai tambah dalam pengembangan produk; serta mengurangi tarif bahan baku untuk industri pengolahan ikan dalam negeri. In the global fisheries market, Indonesia is one of the main exporters. During 2005-2009, the export volumes of fish and shrimp of Indonesia declined by 1.9% and 3.7% per year respectively. It is necessary to investigate if the unexpected performance was caused by low and decreasing competitiveness or by other factors. This study uses the RCA Method, which is one of the methods that can be used to measure the comparative advantage of a commodity in a particular market. The results indicate that during 2007-2009 there are 46 commodities in the 6-digit HS of fisheries having the RCA index larger than one, showing their strong competitiveness in the international market. Some of them even have an increasing level of competitiveness, while some have a declining competitiveness and other commodities experienced fluctuating RCAs. The remaining 71 commodities experienced weak competitiveness (RCA index smaller than one) during 2007-2009. To improve the existing competitiveness, it is required to increase promotional campaigns, not only in domestic market but also in foreign market, improve the quality, encourage banks to increase access to working capital, improve infrastructure, encourage value-added products development, and reduce tariffs of raw material for the domestic fish processing industry. Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2012-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/139 10.30908/bilp.v6i1.139 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 6 No. 1 (2012); 69-88 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 6 No 1 (2012); 69-88 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v6i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/139/96 Copyright (c) 2017 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/140 2022-10-31T16:10:31Z bilp:ART

ANALISIS DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN TARIF IMPOR SERAT KAPAS TERHADAP KESEJAHTERAAN PETANI SERAT KAPAS DI INDONESIA Hermawan, Iwan Serat Kapas Tarif Impor Kesejahteraan Petani Persamaan Simultan Cotton Import Tax Farmer Welfare Simultaneous Equations F13 I31 Q17 Serat kapas sebagai bahan baku utama turut mendorong perkembangan industri TPT, namun hampir seluruhnya justru diimpor. Di sisi lain Indonesia memiliki potensi besar untuk mengembangkan tanaman serat kapas. Berdasarkan fenomena tersebut, serat kapas merupakan bagian dari sistem industri nasional dan intervensi Pemerintah diharapkan dapat mengamankan penerimaan negara dan meningkatkan kemandirian terhadap serat kapas. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan tarif impor terhadap kesejahteraan petani kapas di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data runtut waktu dan pendekatan persamaan simultan yang dikonstruksikan dalam model ekonomi. Hasil analisis menunjukkan (1) kebijakan menaikkan tarif impor serat kapas belum mampu meningkatkan dan mencapai target produksi yang ditetapkan oleh Kementerian Pertanian meskipun kebijakan ini mampu meningkatkan kesejahteraan petani serat kapas di dalam negeri, (2) kombinasi kebijakan tarif impor dengan ekstensifikasi luas lahan tanaman kapas berdampak positif terhadap peningkatan produksi serat kapas di dalam negeri, meskipun memiliki dampak positif yang relatif kecil terhadap kesejahteraan petani dibanding kebijakan lainnya pada masa mendatang. Kombinasi kebijakan ini memiliki arti penting untuk mendorong poduksi serat kapas di dalam negeri, dan (3) tanpa adanya kebijakan tarif impor serat kapas, kenaikan harga dunia serat kapas mampu memberikan dampak positif yang terbesar terhadap kesejahteraan petani serat kapas di dalam negeri. Cotton is a raw material behind the rapidly expanding textile and product textile industry, which most of cotton is imported. On the other side Indonesia’a area is potential for cotton cultivation. Due to that phenomenon, cotton is part of the national industrial system and government intervention is expected to ensure budget revenues and self sufficiency. This research is to analyze the impact of impor tariff policies on cotton farmer welfare. This research uses time series data, with simultaneous model. Based on the results showed that (1) policy of raising import tariff will not increase cotton production yet that set by the Ministry of Agriculture in 2014, although it can still improve cotton farmers welfare, (2) import tariffs policy combination with an area extension of cotton give positive impact on production, despite having positive impact on farmers welfare relatively small compared to other policy in the future. Combination of this policy has significant meaning in order to encourage cotton production in the country, and (3) without any policy of import tariff which followed by incerasing of world price cotton is able to give the higest positive impacts to welfare of cotton farmers. Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2012-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/140 10.30908/bilp.v6i1.140 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 6 No. 1 (2012); 89-108 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 6 No 1 (2012); 89-108 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v6i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/140/97 Copyright (c) 2017 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/141 2022-10-31T16:11:22Z bilp:ART

POTENSI PERDAGANGAN DAN INVESTASI SERAT RAYON DI INDONESIA Ningsih, Rahayu Serat Rayon Investasi Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil Rayon Fiber Investment Textile and Textile Product E22 L67 Indonesia masih menghadapi kelangkaan serat rayon sebagai bahan baku industri tekstil meskipun saat ini Indonesia merupakan salah satu produsen utama serat rayon. Kelangkaan serat rayon diperkirakan disebabkan oleh kecenderungan produsen domestik yang mengekspor sehingga pasokan serat rayon untuk pasar domestik menurun. Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis permasalahan perdagangan dan investasi serat rayon di Indonesia. Disimpulkan bahwa permasalahan kelangkaan serat rayon disebabkan oleh masih rendahnya kapasitas produksi industri serat rayon sehingga produksinya belum mampu memasok kebutuhan domestik. Untuk itu diperlukan kebijakan yang lebih kondusif terutama di sektor kehutanan sehingga dapat mendorong pengembangan investasi industri serat rayon di Indonesia. Indonesia has been facing the shortage of rayon fiber eventhough Indonesia is one of main producers. The shortage of rayon fiber is due to the tendency of producers to export rather than supply the domestic markets; so the supply of rayon fiber is then decreased. This study aims to analyze the problems of rayon fiber related to trade and investment policy of rayon industry in Indonesia. It concludes that the scarcity of rayon was caused by the low of production capacity. So, it needs to develop the investment of rayon industry. Meanwhile, there is still a bottleneck problem of investment in rayon industry. Then, the condussive policy especially in forestry sector is necessary to support the development of investment of rayon industry in Indonesia. Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2012-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/141 10.30908/bilp.v6i1.141 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 6 No. 1 (2012); 109-127 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 6 No 1 (2012); 109-127 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v6i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/141/98 Copyright (c) 2017 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/312 2022-11-02T13:29:01Z bilp:ART

Dampak Penghapusan Subsidi Ekspor Produk Pertanian Terhadap Harga dan Perdagangan Produk Pangan Indonesia Ingot, Steven Raja Ningsih, Rahayu Subsidi Ekspor Produk Pertanian Produk Pangan GTAP WTO Export Subsidy Agriculture Products Food Products Abstrak Salah satu komitmen terpenting hasil pertemuan Konferensi Tingkat Menteri World Trade Organisation (WTO) di Nairobi tahun 2015 adalah diberlakukannya penghapusan subsidi ekspor produk pertanian negara anggota WTO, baik oleh negara maju (pada 2015) maupun negara berkembang (pada 2018). Studi ini bertujuan untuk melihat dampak penghapusan subsidi ekspor produk pertanian oleh negara asal terhadap harga dan perdagangan produk pangan Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan model Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) disimpulkan bahwa penghapusan subsidi ekspor produk pertanian akan mengakibatkan kenaikan harga beberapa produk pangan impor Indonesia terutama susu. Selain itu, penghapusan subsidi ekspor juga akan berdampak pada menurunnya impor Indonesia untuk produk hortikultura, susu, dan makanan olahan sedangkan ekspor Indonesia untuk daging sapi, gula, susu dan makanan olahan akan naik. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia berpotensi untuk swasembada produk pangan sehingga dapat mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap impor.  Dengan demikian komitmen penghapusan subsidi ekspor oleh negara mitra dagang akan berdampak positif bagi Indonesia jika didukung dengan peningkatan produktivitas produk pangan. Kata Kunci: Subsidi Ekspor, Produk Pertanian, Produk Pangan, GTAP, WTO   Abstract One of the most important commitments of the meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference in Nairobi 2015 is the abolition of export subsidies for agricultural products of WTO member countries, both developed countries (in 2015) and developing countries (in 2018). This study aims to examine the impact of the elimination of export subsidy on agricultural products by trading partners toward the price and trade pattern of Indonesian food products. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, the analysis shows that the elimination of export subsidies for agricultural products would lead to higher prices of Indonesian imported food products particularly for milk products. In addition, the abolition of export subsidy would reduce Indonesian imports of horticultural commodities, milk, and processed food while exports of beef, sugar, milk and processed foods would rise. This shows that Indonesia has the potential for self-sufficiency in some food products, thereby reducing dependence on imports, therefore the abolition of export subsidy will given a more positive impact on Indonesia if supported by increasing productivity of food products.   Keywords: Export Subsidy, Agricultural Products, Food Products, GTAP, WTO JEL Classification: D58, F13, Q17, Q18 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2019-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/312 10.30908/bilp.v13i1.312 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 13 No. 1 (2019); 99-118 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 13 No 1 (2019); 99-118 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v13i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/312/227 Copyright (c) 2019 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/414 2020-12-19T11:27:05Z bilp:ART

POSISI GVC INDONESIA DI WILAYAH ASEAN-KANADA Siti Mir'atul Khasanah Laksani, Dian Dwi Suwari, Nur Ulfa Mutiara ASEAN-Kanada FTA GVC Nilai Tambah ASEAN-Canada FTA Value Added Abstrak Rantai Nilai Global atau Global Value Chain (GVC) adalah alat yang berguna untuk melacak pola pergeseran dari produksi global. Kontribusi Indonesia dalam GVC di wilayah ASEAN-Kanada masih rendah, hal ini dapat dilihat dari nilai intermediate input yang lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan nilai final input. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis posisi GVC Indonesia di wilayah ASEAN-Kanada. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis input-output dengan berdasar pada data World Input Output Databases (WIOD). Hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa dalam lingkup ASEAN, kontribusi Indonesia dalam GVC masih rendah, dapat dilihat dari nilai intermediate input yang lebih rendah dari nilai final input. Bila dibandingkan dengan negara-negara lain ASEAN (yang memiliki ekspor terbesar ke Kanada) yaitu Vietnam, Thailand, dan Malaysia, persentase ekspor barang intermediate Indonesia hanya sebesar 48,3%, lebih rendah dibandingkan negara-negara lainnya. Indonesia harus terus mengambil peran aktif di GVC. Di masa depan, Indonesia harus lebih aktif untuk dapat meningkatkan nilai tambah pada ekspor sebagai intermediate input, sehingga akan berdampak pada positif perekonomian Indonesia secara berkelanjutan. Kata Kunci: ASEAN-Kanada FTA, GVC, Nilai Tambah   Abstract Global Value Chain (GVC) is a useful tool to track shifting patterns of global production. Indonesia's contribution in GVC is still low, this can be seen from the lower intermediate input value compared to the final input value. The result of this study aims to analyze the position of Indonesia in the GVC in ASEAN-Canada region. The study used input-output analysis based on World Input Output Databases (WIOD). The study shows that within ASEAN, Indonesia’s contribution in GVC is low, it can be seen from the input intermediate value which is lower than the final input value. When compared with other ASEAN countries (which have the largest exports to Canada), as Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, the percentage of Indonesia’s intermediate exports is only 48.3%, which is lower than those of these countries. Indonesia should continue to take active role on GVC. In the future, Indonesia should be proactive to be able to increase added value on export as intermediate input. To indeed it will positively impact Indonesia's economy in a sustainable manner. Keywords: ASEAN-Canada FTA, GVC, Added Value JEL Classification: A11, B17, B22, B41 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2020-12-18 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/414 10.30908/bilp.v14i2.414 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 14 No. 2 (2020); 239-260 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 14 No 2 (2020); 239-260 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v14i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/414/281 Copyright (c) 2020 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/415 2021-07-16T13:37:22Z bilp:ART

DAMPAK PERUBAHAN PAJAK IMPOR INDIA DAN KAPASITAS PRODUKSI INDUSTRI HILIR MINYAK SAWIT MENTAH INDONESIA TERHADAP DAYA SAING DAN PENERIMAAN DEVISA INDONESIA Novindra Sinaga, Bonar M. Hartoyo, Sri Erwidodo Pajak Impor CPO Permintaan CPO Devisa Ekonometrika Simulasi Crude Palm Oil Import Tax Foreign Exchange Demand for CPO Econometric Abstrak India meningkatkan pajak impor CPO menyebabkan ekspor CPO Indonesia turun sehingga penerimaan devisa dari ekspor CPO juga menurun. Indonesia seharusnya tidak terus bergantung pada devisa dari ekspor CPO, apalagi Indonesia masih mengimpor produk turunan CPO. Indonesia harus terus menumbuhkembangkan industri hilir CPO yang lebih besar menghasilkan nilai tambah dan devisa. Oleh karena itu, perlu kebijakan pemerintah yang tepat guna mendukung hilirisasi industri CPO. Artikel ini bertujuan untuk: (1) menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi impor CPO India; harga ekspor CPO Indonesia ke India; harga domestik CPO dan permintaan CPO oleh industri minyak goreng sawit, margarin, dan sabun; dan (2) mengevaluasi dampak peningkatan pajak impor CPO India dan kapasitas produksi industri hilir CPO terhadap daya saing ekspor CPO Indonesia-Malaysia, minyak goreng sawit, margarin dan sabun Indonesia serta penerimaan devisa ekspor CPO, minyak goreng sawit, margarin, dan sabun Indonesia periode 2015-2017. Artikel ini merupakan bagian dari penelitian tentang penawaran dan permintaan minyak sawit dan produk turunan yang menggunakan model ekonometrika yaitu: sistem persamaan simultan dinamis. Peningkatan harga CPO dunia akan berpengaruh besar terhadap harga ekspor CPO Indonesia ke India. Peningkatan kapasitas produksi industri hilir CPO akan berpengaruh besar terhadap permintaan CPO dan produksi produk turunannya. Untuk meningkatkan daya saing dan nilai penerimaan devisa ekspor produk turunan CPO Indonesia, pada kondisi India atau negara importir utama lainnya meningkatan pajak impor CPO maka pemerintah perlu memfasilitasi peningkatan kapasitas produksi industri hilir CPO dan produksi produk turunan CPO di Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Pajak Impor CPO, Permintaan CPO, Devisa, Ekonometrika, Simulasi   Abstract India increased the CPO import tax rate causing Indonesia's CPO exports to fall so that foreign exchange revenues from CPO exports also declined. Indonesia should not continue to depend on these, especially since Indonesia still imports CPO-derived products. Indonesia must continue to develop CPO downstream industries that larger producing added value and foreign exchange revenues. The right government policies are needed to support development the CPO downstreaming industries. This article aims to: (1) analyze the factors affecting Indian CPO imports; Indonesian CPO export prices to India; CPO domestic prices and CPO demand by the palm cooking oil, margarine, and soap industries; and (2) evaluating the impact of an increase in Indian CPO import tax rate and production capacity of CPO downstream industries on the competitiveness of Indonesia-Malaysia CPO exports, Indonesian exports of palm cooking oil, margarine and soap as well as Indonesian foreign exchange revenues in 2015-2017 period. This article is part of a research on the supply and demand of palm oil and its derivatives using the econometric model: dynamic simultaneous equation systems. The increase in world CPO prices will have a major effect on the export price of Indonesian CPO to India. The increase in the production capacity of the CPO downstream industry will have a major impact on the demand for CPO and the production of its derivative products. To increase the competitiveness and the value of foreign exchange earnings from Indonesian exports of CPO derivative products, in conditions of India or other major importing countries to increase CPO import taxes rate, government are needed to facilitate increasing in production capacity of the CPO downstream industry and the production of CPO derivative products in Indonesia. Keywords: CPO Import Taxes, Demand for CPO, Foreign Exchange, Econometric, Simulation Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2021-07-15 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/415 10.30908/bilp.v15i1.415 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 15 No. 1 (2021): ; 77-104 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 15 No 1 (2021): ; 77-104 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v15i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/415/296 Copyright (c) 2021 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/425 2020-12-19T11:18:37Z bilp:ART

EVALUASI KESESUAIAN PASAR RAKYAT KABUPATEN BOGOR BERBASIS KEBUTUHAN PENGGUNA Paryatno, Luksi Rustiadi, Ernan Tinaprilla, Netti Traditional Market Performance Analysis Customer Satisfaction IPA CSI SNI Abstrak Pasar rakyat merupakan salah satu sumber Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) di Kabupaten Bogor. Pembangunan pasar mengacu pada Perda Kota Bogor No.11 Tahun 2012 dengan memperhatikan kebutuhan masyarakat di sekitarnya supaya dapat dimanfaatkan secara optimal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat kesesuaian kondisi pasar rakyat dengan SNI pasar dan kebutuhan penggunanya. Fasilitas yang dievalusi yaitu sarana prasarana, kebersihan, keamanan, dan aksesibilitas dengan analisis deskriptif terhadap persentase kesesuaian kondisi eksisting dengan SNI pasar. Metode Important Performance Analysis (IPA) digunakan untuk mengukur indeks kepentingan dan kinerja fasilitas pasar serta metode Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) untuk mengukur indeks kepuasan pengguna terhadap pasar. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa belum ada pasar yang 100%  sesuai dengan SNI Pasar Rakyat. Berdasarkan persepsi pengguna, terdapat 4 fasilitas penting yang harus diperhatikan pengelola yaitu jumlah hidran air, lokasi hidran air, jumlah CCTV, dan lokasi CCTV. Masih diperlukan kebijakan dalam pengelolaan dan perbaikan pada fasilitas yang tersedia di sebagian besar pasar rakyat yang ada di Kabupaten Bogor, dimana secara keseluruhan tingkat kepuasan pengguna terhadap pasar rakyat kelas I dan kelas II masuk pada kriteria cause for concern dan pada pasar kelas III masuk pada kriteria poor dengan rata-rata kepuasan secara keseluruhan pasar sebesar 70 %. Kata Kunci: Pasar Rakyat, Analisis Kepentingan, Tingkat Kepuasan, IPA dan CSI, SNI Abstract Traditional market is one of revenue source (PAD) in Kabupaten Bogor. The market development must refer to Bogor local government regulation No. 11 Tahun 2012 and incorporate the needs of society around them to be optimize maximally. This study aims to  find the consistency of the traditional market condition against SNI on market and the needs of the users. The evaluated facilities are the condition of infrastructure, cleanliness, security, and accessibility. Analysis using have been carried out with a method of descriptive heading for measuring the percentage of the consistency of the exsisting traditional market condition with SNI Pasar. A method of Important Performance Analysis (IPA) used to measure performance index of interest and facilities as wel as a method of customer satisfaction index (CSI) for measuring user satisfaction index to the traditional market. The results showed that there was no market that was 100% in accordance with the SNI Pasar Rakyat. Based on the users perception, there are 4 important facilities that must be considered which are the number of water hydrants, the location of water hydrants, the number of CCTVs, and the location of CCTV. Therefore, market management policy is still needed to improve management and facilities at traditional market in Kabupaten Bogor, where overall user satisfaction to the market class I and class II in on the cause for concern and on class III markets enters at the poor overall satisfaction with an average of 70%. Keywords: Traditional Market, Performance Analysis, Customer Satisfaction, IPA and CSI, SNI JEL Classification: F12, F13, F1 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2020-12-18 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/425 10.30908/bilp.v14i2.425 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 14 No. 2 (2020); 305-324 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 14 No 2 (2020); 305-324 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v14i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/425/280 Copyright (c) 2020 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/432 2020-12-19T11:22:52Z bilp:ART

THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY UTILIZATION IN THE TRADE SECTOR ON ITS PRODUCTIVITY, LABOR AND ECONOMIC GROWTH Taufikurahman, Muhammad Rizal Firdaus, Ahmad Heri Digital Technology Productivity Labor Economic Growth Abstrak Kehadiran ekonomi digital sebagai bagian dari revolusi industri 4.0 yang telah membuka peluang baru dalam bidang perdagangan dan menjembatani kepentingan produsen, konsumen, dan pasar tanpa dibatasi ruang dan waktu. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis dampak pemanfaatan teknologi digital pada sektor perdagangan terhadap produktivitasnya, penyerapan tenaga kerja dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah metode analisis model Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) dinamik. Hasil analisis menunjukkan digitalisasi di sektor perdagangan meningkatkan jumlah outputnya sebagai produktivitas jangka pendek dan panjang. Adapun dampak terhadap penyerapan tenaga kerja di perkotaan dan pedesaan menurunkan jenis pekerjaan tertentu pada periode analisis terutama tenaga kerja terampil rendah. Selanjutnya dampak terhadap GDP riil meningkat pada periode analisis. Kebijakan yang direkomendasikan adalah perlu perbaikan akurasi dan validitas database produk-produk yang kompetitif, strategi antisipatif untuk tenaga kerja yang terdistrupsi, pelayanan perizinan akses semakin mudah, optimalisasi aplikasi teknologi digital dalam tata kelola perdagangan, dan perbaikan sarana prasarana informasi dan teknologi. Kata Kunci: Teknologi Digital, Produktivitas, Tenaga Kerja, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi   Abstract The presence of a digital economy as part of the industrial revolution 4.0 has opened up new opportunities in trade and bridged the interests of producers, consumers, and markets without being constrained by time and space. The study aims to analyze the impact of digital technology utilization on the trade sector on its productivity, labor, and economic growth. The analysis method used is the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The analysis results show that digitalization in the trade sector increases output as productivity in the short and long term. The impact on labor in urban and rural areas reduces certain types of work in the analysis period, especially low skilled labor. Furthermore, during the analysis period, the impact on real GDP increases. The recommended policy is to improve the accuracy and validity of competitive products' database, anticipatory strategies for labor that have disrupted, easier access licensing services, optimization of digital technology applications in trade governance, and improvement of information and technology infrastructure. Keywords: Digital Technology, Productivity, Labor, Economic Growth JEL Classification: F12, F13, F15 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2020-12-18 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/432 10.30908/bilp.v14i2.432 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 14 No. 2 (2020); 195-214 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 14 No 2 (2020); 195-214 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v14i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/432/285 Copyright (c) 2020 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/438 2020-12-19T11:24:16Z bilp:ART

THE AWAKENING OF INVESTMENT CREATION: A CASE STUDY FROM SOUTH-EAST ASIA Oktavia, Indriana Verico, Kiki ASEAN FDI AFTA Intra-Trade AEC Abstrak ASEAN membentuk integrasi ekonomi, seperti ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), AFTA+1, dan ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), untuk meningkatkan perdagangan intra dan investasi antarnegara ASEAN. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk meneliti dampak integrasi ekonomi ASEAN terhadap ASEAN FDI (AFDI) dan perdagangan intra ASEAN (AIT). Penelitian ini menggunakan data sepuluh negara ASEAN dan enam negara mitra selama periode 2001-2017 dan di estimasi dengan menggunakan Generalized Least-Square (GLS). Hasil estimasi menunjukkan CEPT-AFTA ASEAN6 tidak dapat meningkatkan AIT dan AFDI. Dampak positif CEPT-AFTA pada AFDI dan AIT hanya terjadi pada tahun 2015, meskipun dampak pada AIT tidak signifikan. Penelitian ini mengindikasikan bahwa AFTA+ dapat meningkatkan AIT dan AFDI antara negara-negara ASEAN+6. AEC memiliki dampak positif pada AFDI dan dampak negatif pada AIT. Penelitian ini juga menyimpulkan bahwa jika dengan kerangka ASEAN+ menyebabkan investment creation di kawasan ASEAN+6. Untuk memperkuat perdagangan dan investasi, maka pemerintah perlu memperkuat kerja sama melalui Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Kata Kunci: ASEAN, FDI, AFTA, Perdagangan Intra, AEC   Abstract ASEAN created several economic integrations, such as the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), AFTA+1, and ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), to increase intra-trade and investment between ASEAN countries. This study aimed to examine the impact of ASEAN economic integration to ASEAN FDI (AFDI) and ASEAN Intra-Trade (AIT). The data consists of ten ASEAN countries and six partner countries from 2001 to 2017. It was estimated using the Generalized Least-Square (GLS). Estimation results showed that CEPT-AFTA ASEAN6 could not increase AIT and AFDI. The positive impact of CEPT-AFTA on AFDI and AIT occurred in 2015, with insignificance on AIT. The study also indicated that AFTA+ could increase AIT and AFDI between ASEAN+6 countries. Contrarily, AEC provided a positive impact on AFDI and an insignificant negative impact on AIT. The study concluded that the ASEAN+ framework causes investment creation in ASEAN and partner countries. The government needs to strengthen cooperation through Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to escalate FDI and trade.   Keywords: ASEAN, FDI, AFTA, Intra-Trade, AEC JEL Classification: F13, F14, F15 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2020-12-18 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/438 10.30908/bilp.v14i2.438 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 14 No. 2 (2020); 177-194 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 14 No 2 (2020); 177-194 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v14i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/438/284 Copyright (c) 2020 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/439 2021-07-16T13:35:57Z bilp:ART

ANALISIS DAMPAK IC-CEPA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Taufiqqurrachman, Fahrizal Dwi Handoyo , Rossanto IC-CEPA GTAP Sectoral MAcroeconomic Abstrak Perkembangan perdagangan Indonesia akan semakin bervariasi hal ini dapat dilihat dari kebijakan kementerian perdagangan yang memfokuskan untuk menjalin kerja sama perdagangan internasional dengan beberapa negara diluar negara maju. Salah satunya perdagangan bilateral Indonesia Chile dalam kerangka IC-CEPA. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis Model CGE Multiregional. Model yang digunakan sudah tersusun dalam Aplikasi GTAP versi 9 Lisensi Kementerian Perdagangan yang difokuskan pada sektoral dan makro ekonomi Indonesia. Hasil olah data GTAP menunjukkan bahwa sektor yang berorientasi ekspor di Indonesia seperti textile, oil seeds, paper product and publishing, motor vehicle and parts, machinery and equipments dan electronic equipment menunjukkan hasil yang positif setelah dilakukan simulasi (shock) penurunan tarif sebesar 80 - 40 dan 0% (full liberalization). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa sektor yang berorientasi pada ekspor mengalami peningkatan. Pada kondisi makroekonomi kesepakataan liberalisasi pada IC-CEPA mampu mempengaruhi kesejahteraan yang terus meningkat. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan adanya integrasi yang solid antara pemerintah dan para pelaku usaha yang bergerak di bidang sektor ekspor Indonesia dengan memberikan kebijakan yang mampu mengoptimalkan kuantitas dan menjaga kualitas sektor tersebut dalam bersaing di pasar Chile. Kata kunci: IC-CEPA, GTAP, Sektoral, Makroekonomi   Abstract The Indonesia's trade development is increasingly varied, shown by the ministry of trade’s policy which focuses more on establishing international trade cooperation with countries outside developed countries. One of them is bilateral trade between Indonesia and Chile in the framework of IC-CEPA. The research uses analysis method of the Multiregional CGE Model. The model used has been arranged in the GTAP Application version 9 of the Ministry of Trade License which focused on the sectoral and macroeconomics of Indonesia. The results of the analysis show that Indonesia’s export-oriented sectors such as textiles, oil seeds, paper products and publishing, motor vehicles and parts, machinery and equipment and electronic equipment positively impacted by tariff reduction of 80 - 40 and 0 percent (full liberalization). The analysis shows that the export-oriented sector increased. The agreement on liberalization of IC-CEPA is able to influence welfare increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to have a solid integration between the government and business players engaged in Indonesian export commodities by providing policies that are able to optimize the quantity and maintain the quality of the sector in competing in the Chilean market. Keywords: IC-CEPA, GTAP, Sectoral, Macroeconomics JEL Classifications: F13, F18, F62   Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2021-07-15 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/439 10.30908/bilp.v15i1.439 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 15 No. 1 (2021): ; 27-50 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 15 No 1 (2021): ; 27-50 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v15i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/439/298 Copyright (c) 2021 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/440 2020-12-19T11:21:26Z bilp:ART

REVITALISASI PASAR DAN STABILISASI HARGA KOMODITAS PANGAN Ariestiyanti, Dwi Adrison, Vid Price Stability Market Revitalization Food Commodity Prices Random Effects Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat hubungan antara pelaksanaan program revitalisasi pasar dengan stabilisasi harga komoditas pangan. Penelitian ini dilihat dari sudut pandang pemerintah dan juga menggunakan data pasar dari 95 Kabupten/kota yang ada di Indonesia. Pelaksanaan revitalisasi pasar rakyat berbeda-beda di tiap daerah di Indonesia. Hal ini dilihat dari berapa anggaran yang dikeluarkan di daerah tersebut, kepadatan penduduk, total pasar serta pasar yang direvitalisasi dan juga pendapatan per kapita. Penelitian ini menggunakan data harga 10 komoditas dari Pusat Informasi Harga Pangan Strategis (PIHPS) Nasional, data anggaran revitalisasi pasar yang diperoleh dari Kementerian Perdagangan dan juga data Potensi Desa (PODES) 2014 dan 2018 dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) untuk melihat data jumlah pasar permanen dan semi permanen. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode data panel dari koefisien variasi dan laju perubahan harga dari 10 komoditi pangan per bulan dari tahun 2016-2019 dari 95 kabupaten/kota di Indonesia. Di estimasi dengan model Random Effect. Studi ini membuktikan bahwa pelaksanaan revitalisasi/pembangunan baru pasar rakyat hanya dari sisi anggaran revitalisasi berkorelasi dengan stabilitas harga komoditas pangan. Oleh karena itu, pemberian anggaran untuk revitalisasi pasar harus di awasi karena apabila digunakan secara tepat oleh daerah akan dapat menciptakan stabilisasi harga komoditi di pasar yang sudah direvitalisasi. Kata kunci : Stabilitas Harga, Revitalisasi Pasar, Harga Komoditas Pangan, Random Effect.   Abstract This study aims to look at the relationship between the implementation of the market revitalization program and the stabilization of food commodity prices. This research is seen from the perspective of the government and uses market data from 95 districts/cities in Indonesia. The revitalization of people's markets varies in each region in Indonesia. This can be seen from the amount of budget spent in the area, population density, total market and revitalized market and per capita income. This study uses 10 commodity price data from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS), market revitalization budget data obtained from the Ministry of Trade and also 2014 Village Potential Data (PODES) and 2018 from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) to see market number data permanent and semi-permanent. This study uses panel data method from the coefficient of variation and the rate of change in prices of 10 food commodities per month from 2016-2019 from 95 districts / cities in Indonesia. Estimated by the Random Effect model. This study proves that the implementation of revitalization/new development of people's markets only in terms of revitalization budget correlates with the stability of food commodity prices. Therefore, the granting of a budget for market revitalization must be monitored because if it is used properly by the regions, it will be able to create commodity price stabilization in a revitalized market. Keyword: Price Stability, Market Revitalization, Food Commodity Prices, Random Effects JEL Classification: D40, E63, E64 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2020-12-18 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/440 10.30908/bilp.v14i2.440 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 14 No. 2 (2020); 261-282 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 14 No 2 (2020); 261-282 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v14i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/440/282 Copyright (c) 2020 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/442 2020-12-19T11:25:40Z bilp:ART

DIVERSIFIKASI EKSPOR NON MIGAS INDONESIA KE PASAR NON TRADISIONAL Harahap, Hotsawadi Widyastutik Export Diversification Demand Index Non-traditional Random Effect Model Structural Match Index Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis diversifikasi ekspor non migas Indonesia ke pasar non tradisional. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah analisis statistik deskriptif dengan pendekatan pengelompokan (clustering), Structural Match Index dan Demand Index, serta regresi data panel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa negara yang diidentifikasikan sebagai negara non tradisional potensial adalah Brazil, Pantai Gading, Mesir, Georgia, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Myanmar, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Russian Federation, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, dan Uruguay. Hasil regresi data panel menunjukkan bahwa Random Effect Model merupakan model yang terbaik untuk menjelaskan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi ekspor non migas Indonesia ke negara non tradisional. Hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa GDP riil negara tujuan, populasi negara tujuan, nilai tukar riil, FDI dan kualitas pelabuhan Indonesia berpengaruh signifikan secara statistik terhadap ekspor non migas Indonesia ke negara non tradisional potensial tersebut. Beberapa rekomendasi kebijakan yang perlu dilakukan untuk meningkatkan ekspor non migas ke negara tujuan non tradisional diantaranya perlu dilakukan intelejen pasar mengenai kebutuhan dan selera dari masing-masing negara non tradisional atas produk Indonesia, peningkatan kualitas pelabuhan Indonesia dan kebijakan tambahan yang memberikan insentif untuk menarik Foreign Direct Investment ke Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Diversifikasi Ekspor, Demand Index, Non traditional, Random Effect Model, Structural Match Index   Abstract This study aims to analyze the diversification of Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to non-traditional markets. The research method used is descriptive statistical analysis with a clustering approach, Structural Match Index and demand index, and panel data regression. The results showed that countries identified as potential non-traditional countries were Brazil, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Georgia, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Myanmar, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Russian Federation, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Uruguay. The panel data regression results show that the random effect model is the best model to explain the factors that influence Indonesia's non-oil exports to non-traditional countries. The results show that the real GDP of the destination country, the population of the destination country, the real exchange rate, FDI and the quality of Indonesia's ports have a statistically significant effect on Indonesia's non-oil exports to these potential non-traditional countries. Then, in this study there are several policy recommendations that need to be done to increase non-oil and gas exports to non-traditional destination countries including market intelligence regarding the needs and tastes of each non-traditional country for Indonesian products, improving the quality of Indonesian ports and additional policies that provide incentives to attract Foreign Direct Investment to Indonesia. Keywords:  Export Diversification, Demand Index, Non-traditional, Random Effect Model, Structural Match Index JEL Classifications: F13, F15, F18 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2020-12-18 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/442 10.30908/bilp.v14i2.442 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 14 No. 2 (2020); 215-238 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 14 No 2 (2020); 215-238 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v14i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/442/283 Copyright (c) 2020 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/445 2025-02-05T13:50:26Z bilp:ART

ANALISIS DAYA SAING SERTA FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI PANGSA PASAR NEGARA EKSPORTIR UTAMA KOPI DI NEGARA IMPORTIR UTAMA KOPI Manalu, Doni Sahat Tua Harianto Suharno Hartoyo, Sri Coffee Export Competition Global Market Abstrak Negara eksportir utama kopi dunia dalam kurun waktu 1995-2017 adalah Brazil, Vietnam, Kolombia dan Indonesia. Sementara importir utama dunia adalah Amerika Serikat, Jepang, dan Jerman. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis daya saing komparatif negara eksportir utama kopi dunia dan menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi pangsa pasar negara eksportir utama kopi di negara importir utama kopi. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder menggunakan jenis data time series periode 1995-2017 dengan kode HS 090111. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah metode Revealed Comparative Advantage, Dynamic Revealed Comparative Advantage, dan metode Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa keempat negara eksportir utama kopi dunia memiliki daya saing yang bervariasi. Faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi pangsa pasar negara eksportir utama kopi di negara importir utama kopi adalah harga dan non harga. Rekomendasi yang diberikan memerlukan keterlibatan dari berbagai pihak (petani, pengusaha, dan pemerintah) mulai dari cara budidaya, pemeliharaan, panen, dan pasca panen yang benar dilakukan dengan memberikan penyuluhan melalui program pemerintah, penerapan sertifikasi mutu kopi serta kebijakan perdagangan dalam bentuk kerja sama bilateral. Kata Kunci: Kopi, Ekspor, Persaingan, Pasar Global    Abstract The main exporting countries of world coffee in the period 1995-2017 were Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Indonesia. The world's main importers are the United States, Japan, and Germany. The purpose of this study is to analyze the comparative competitiveness of the world's main coffee exporters and to analyze the factors that influence the market share of the major coffee exporting countries in the major coffee importing countries. The data used in this study is secondary data obtained from various sources using time series data for the period 1995 to 2017 with the HS code 090111. The data analysis method used is the Revealed Comparative Advantage, Dynamic Revealed Comparative Advantage, and Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System. The results showed that the four major coffee exporters in the world had competitiveness. The factors that affect the market share of the main coffee exporting countries in the main coffee importing countries are price and non-price. The recommendations given require the involvement of various parties (farmers, entrepreneurs, and the governments) starting from the correct way of cultivation, harvesting, and post-harvest carried out by providing counseling through government programs, implementing coffee quality certification, and trade policies in the form of bilateral cooperation. Keywords: Coffee, Export, Competition, Global Market JEL Classification: C22, F13, O24, Q17 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2022-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/445 10.30908/bilp.v16i1.445 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 16 No. 1 (2022): BILP ; 1-24 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BILP ; 1-24 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v16i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/445/362 Copyright (c) 2022 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/447 2020-12-19T11:20:02Z bilp:ART

ORGANIC FOOD MARKET IN JAVA AND BALI: CONSUMER PROFILE AND MARKETING CHANNEL ANALYSIS Najib, Mukhamad Sumarwan, Ujang Septiani, Stevia Organic Food Consumer Behavior Marketing Channels Developing Countries Abstrak Tren keamanan pangan menjadi isu sensitif dalam industri pangan saat ini. Pertanian organik dapat menjadi alternatif solusi karena memiliki keseimbangan lingkungan, kesehatan, dan kebermanfaatan bagi petani lokal. Namun, tingginya harga produk serta skala produksi yang masih rendah menjadi faktor yang membatasi pertumbuhan pasar pangan organik di dalam negeri. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis perilaku konsumen pangan organik, menganalisis saluran pemasaran dan memformulasikan alternatif saluran pemasaran pangan organik dalam negeri. Pengambilan sampel dilakukan secara purposive dimana kriteria responden adalah mereka yang mengetahui pangan organik dan berdomisili di lima kota besar pulau Jawa dan Bali. Survei saluran pemasaran dilakukan di Jakarta dan Jawa Barat dengan mewawancarai aktor-aktor di setiap rantai nilai. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan peluang pasar pangan organik cukup besar, karena umumnya responden telah menyadari bahwa pangan organik baik untuk kesehatan. Konsumen pangan organik saat ini termasuk kelompok middle class segment berusia 20-50 tahun, pekerja kantoran dan berpenghasilan di atas Rp 9 juta. Bagi konsumen, label sertifikasi pangan organik lebih penting dari merek. Saluran pemasaran organik sangat bervariasi. Pada pasar B2C pemanfaatan digital marketing dapat meminimalisir risiko finansial petani organik. Sementara pasar B2B dapat dioptimalkan melalui kerjasama perhotelan, restoran, kafe, rumah sakit, dan industri pengolahan makanan sehat, serta didukung kebijakan pemerintah yang selaras. Kata Kunci: Pangan Organik, Perilaku Konsumen, Saluran Pemasaran, Negara Berkembang   Abstract The trend of food safety is a sensitive issue in the food industry today. Organic agriculture can be an alternative solution because it has a right balance in terms of the environment, health and benefits for local farmers. However, high prices for organic products and low production scale limit the growth of the domestic organic food market. This research aims to analyze organic food’s consumer behavior, analyze the existing marketing channels and formulate alternative marketing channels for the domestic organic food supply chain. Sampling was carried out by purposive sampling method in which the criteria for respondents were those who know about organic food and live in five big cities in Java and Bali. The marketing channel survey was conducted in Jakarta and West Java by interviewing each actor in the value chain. The results showed that organic food’s market opportunity was quite large, because the respondents were generally aware that organic food was good for health. Organic food consumers are currently included in the middle-class segment, aged 20-50 years, office workers, and income more than IDR 9 million a month. For consumers, certification labels are more important than brands in organic food. On the one hand, organic marketing channels still vary widely. In the B2C market, the use of digital marketing can minimize the financial risks of organic farmers. On the other hand, the B2B market can be optimized through cooperation in hotels, restaurants, cafes, hospitals, and the healthy food processing industry, supported by government policies. Keywords: Organic Food, Consumer Behavior, Marketing Channels, Developing Countries JEL Classifications: D11, F10, F18 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2020-12-18 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/447 10.30908/bilp.v14i2.447 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 14 No. 2 (2020); 283-304 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 14 No 2 (2020); 283-304 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v14i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/447/286 Copyright (c) 2020 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/454 2021-07-16T13:34:32Z bilp:ART

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN TRADE REMEDY TERHADAP EKSPOR COATED PAPER INDONESIA KE AMERIKA SERIKAT MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARIMA INTERVENSI Amadea, Diva Ika Oktora, Siskarossa Trade Remedies Coated Paper Exports ARIMA Intervention Model Abstrak Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara dengan hutan tropis terluas di dunia yang memiliki kekayaan sumber daya hutan dan keanekaragaman hayati di dalamnya. Salah satu komoditas ekspor unggulan Indonesia yang merupakan hasil hutan adalah kertas. Pada periode 2006-2018, volume ekspor kertas ke beberapa negara tujuan utama ekspor menunjukkan tren yang terus menurun termasuk ke Amerika Serikat. Penurunan volume ekspor kertas di beberapa negara tersebut terkait dengan masalah yang dihadapi industri kertas Indonesia, yakni pengenaan kebijakan trade remedy oleh Amerika Serikat terkait praktik dumping dan subsidi produk coated paper Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh dan besarnya dampak dari pengenaan trade remedy terhadap ekspor kertas Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat dengan model ARIMA Intervensi. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah volume ekspor kertas (coated paper) bulanan (kg) dari Januari 2006 hingga Desember 2018. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengenaan kebijakan trade remedy oleh Amerika Serikat berpengaruh signifikan menurunkan volume ekspor kertas Indonesia ke negara tersebut.  Dampak pengenaan kebijakan trade remedy oleh Amerika Serikat terhadap produk ekspor coated paper Indonesia langsung dirasakan saat kebijakan diberlakukan yaitu pada bulan Januari 2010. Dampak penurunan terbesar terjadi pada bulan Maret 2010, dengan penurunan sebesar 5.015 ton atau mencapai 91,07%. Dampak negatif dari kebijakan trade remedy terhadap ekspor kertas Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat berlangsung sepanjang waktu penelitian dan dapat menjadi permanen jika tidak dilakukan intervensi kebijakan. Kebijakan yang direkomendasikan diantaranya adalah penguatan Portal Satu Data Perdagangan sebagai bagian dari penguatan administrasi bukti-bukti khususnya substansi dari sisi hukum untuk membantah tuduhan yang diberikan. Peningkatan performa ekspor coated paper Indonesia juga dapat disiasati dengan mencari pasar ekspor nontradisional.   Kata Kunci: Trade Remedy, Ekspor Kertas, Model ARIMA Intervensi   Abstract Indonesia is one of the countries with the largest tropical forest in the world, which has a wealth of forest resources and biodiversity. One of the main Indonesia export from forest products is paper. In 2006-2018, the paper volume export to several main export destination countries showed a downward trend, including the United States. The decline in the paper volume export in several countries is related to problems facing the Indonesian paper industry, which imposes a trade remedy policy by the United States regarding dumping practices and subsidies for Indonesian coated paper products. This study aims to analyze the effect and magnitude of the imposition of trade remedy on Indonesian paper exports using the ARIMA Intervention model. The data used in this study is the volume of monthly coated paper exports (kg) from January 2006 to December 2018. The results show that the imposition of a trade remedy policy has a significant effect on reducing Indonesian paper exports. The impact of the trade remedy policy imposed by the United States on Indonesian coated paper exports was immediately felt in January 2010. The highest decline occurred in March 2010, with a decrease of 5,015 tons or reaching 91.07%. The negative impact of the trade remedy policy on Indonesia's paper exports to the United States lasts throughout the time of the study and is considered permanent if no policy intervention is made. Policy recommendations include strengthening the One Trading Data Portal as part of strengthening the evidence's administration, especially the substance of the law, to dispute the charge given. The permanent negative impact on the performance of coated paper exports to the United States can also be overcome by seeking nontraditional export markets .Keywords: Trade Remedy, Coated Paper Exports, ARIMA Intervention Model JEL Classification: F13, F68, C22 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2021-07-15 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/454 10.30908/bilp.v15i1.454 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 15 No. 1 (2021): ; 105-126 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 15 No 1 (2021): ; 105-126 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v15i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/454/300 Copyright (c) 2021 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/489 2021-07-16T13:33:08Z bilp:ART

TRADE CREATION DAN TRADE DIVERSION ATAS PEMBERLAKUAN ACFTA TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN HORTIKULTURA INDONESIA Nur Mahdi, Naufal Suharno Nurmalina, Rita Data Panel Daya Saing Integrasi Ekonomi Model Gravitasi RSCA Competitiveness Economic Integration Gravity Model Abstrak Dampak positif seharusnya diperoleh subsektor hortikultura Indonesia atas implementasi ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). Namun demikian, subsektor hortikultura Indonesia belum memberikan kinerja yang berarti ketika impor produk hortikultura meningkat melalui tahapan penurunan tarif ACFTA dalam program The Early Harvest Program (EHP). Studi ini meneliti keragaan impor hortikultura Indonesia dengan menggunakan deskriptif analisis. Studi ini juga menganalisis daya saing produk hortikultura negara ASEAN-5 dengan China serta dampak kreasi perdagangan dan diversi perdagangan atas pemberlakuan ACFTA terhadap impor produk hortikultura Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode RSCA (Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantage) dan metode ekonometrik melalui pendekatan model gravitasi dengan data panel dari tahun 2001-2018. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa berdasarkan nilai RSCA, Indonesia tidak berdaya saing pada kedua jenis produk hortikultura tersebut. Model gravitasi juga menunjukkan bahwa negara anggota ACFTA mampu memanfaatkan perjanjian regional ini dengan ditandai tingginya nilai impor hortikultura Indonesia terutama dari China. Ini menandakan bahwa pelaksanaan ACFTA telah menciptakan efek penciptaan perdagangan dengan meningkatkan perdagangan intra-regional antara negara anggota ACFTA, namun tidak menyebabkan pengalihan perdagangan dengan negara non-anggota (perdagangan dengan negara non anggota tidak mengalami penurunan). Oleh karena itu, diperlukan langkah kebijakan peningkatan daya saing melalui perbaikan komponen manajerial dan teknologi seiring terbukanya pasar di kawasan ini bagi UMKM Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Data Panel, Daya Saing, Integrasi Ekonomi, Model Gravitasi, RSCA Abstract The positive impact of the implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) on the indonesia’s horticulture sub-sector should be obtained. However, the Indonesian horticulture sub-sector has not shown significant performance when import of horticultural products has increased through the ACFTA tariff reduction stages in The Early Harvest Programm (EHP). This study examines the performance of Indonesian horticultural imports using descriptive analysis. It also analyzes the competitiveness of horticultural products of ASEAN-5 countries with China as well as the impact of trade creation and trade diversion of the implementation of ACFTA on imports of Indonesian horticultural products. It uses the RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) index and the gravity model using panel data from 2001-2018. It shows that Indonesia is not competitive in both types of horticultural products (RSCA <0). The gravity model also indicates that ACFTA member countries have taken advantage of this regional agreement, marked by the high value of Indonesian horticultural imports, especially from China. This shows that the implementation of the ACFTA has created a trade creation effect by increasing intra-regional trade between ACFTA member countries, but has not led to a diversion of trade with non-member countries (trade with non-member countries has not decreased). Therefore, it is necessary to make policy strategies to increase competitiveness through improvements in managerial and technological components in line with the opening of the market in this region to Indonesian MSMEs. Keywords: Competitiveness, Economic Integration, Gravity Model, Panel Data, RSCA JEL Classification: F15, F17, Q17 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2021-07-15 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/489 10.30908/bilp.v15i1.489 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 15 No. 1 (2021): ; 51-76 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 15 No 1 (2021): ; 51-76 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v15i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/489/299 Copyright (c) 2021 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/491 2021-07-16T13:31:44Z bilp:ART

VOLATILITAS DAN TRANSMISI HARGA DAGING SAPI DI INDONESIA: STUDI KASUS DI JAKARTA, BANDUNG, SEMARANG DAN SURABAYA Komalawati Asmarantaka, Ratna Winandi Nurmalina, Rita hakim, dedi budiman Volatilitas Daging Sapi GARCH Stabilisasi Harga Vector Auto Regression Beef Abstrak Daging sapi merupakan salah satu komoditas strategis dengan harga yang cukup berfluktuasi. Fluktuasi harga daging sapi dapat berpengaruh terhadap produsen, konsumen, dan industri pengolahan daging sapi skala kecil. Besarnya perubahan harga daging sapi yang terjadi di suatu pasar dapat memengaruhi pasar lainnya dan dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui kekuatan suatu pasar. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji volatilitas dan transmisi harga daging sapi di sentra konsumen Jakarta dan sentra produsen Bandung, Semarang dan Surabaya. Data yang digunakan adalah data harian daging sapi. Volatilitas harga harian daging sapi dianalisis dengan menggunakan model GARCH dan transmisi harga dikaji dengan menggunakan model VAR/VECM. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa hanya harga daging sapi Jakarta yang memiliki volatilitas rendah namun persisten dalam jangka panjang. Perubahan harga daging sapi ditransmisikan dua arah dari Jakarta ke Bandung dan Semarang, dan hanya searah dari Jakarta ke Surabaya. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa upaya stabilisasi harga daging sapi dapat dilakukan dengan menjaga ketersediaan daging sapi baik melalui impor (jangka pendek dan menengah) maupun upaya penyediaan bibit sapi dan sapi potong lokal dalam jangka panjang. Iklim usaha daging sapi yang kompetitif juga diperlukan agar ketidaksesuaian perubahan harga antar pasar dapat dikurangi. Kata Kunci: Daging Sapi, Volatilitas, GARCH, Vector Auto Regression, Stabilisasi Harga   Abstract Beef is one of the strategic commodities with fairly fluctuating prices. Fluctuations in beef prices could affect producers, consumers, and small-scale beef processing industries. The magnitude of changes in beef prices that occur in a market could affect other markets and could be used to determine the strength of a market. The purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility and transmission of beef prices in the consumer centers of Jakarta and the production centers of Bandung, Semarang and Surabaya. The data used is the daily data of beef. Daily price volatility of beef was analyzed using the GARCH model and price transmission was assessed using the VAR/VECM model. The results of the study show that only Jakarta beef prices have low volatility but are persistent in the long term. Changes in beef prices are transmitted in two directions from Jakarta to Bandung and Semarang, and only in one direction from Jakarta to Surabaya. The results of the analysis show that efforts to stabilize beef prices could be carried out by maintaining the availability of beef either through import (short and medium term) or efforts to provide cattle seeds and local beef cattle in the long term. A competitive beef business climate is also needed so that discrepancies in price changes between markets could be reduced. Keywords: Beef, Volatility, GARCH, Vector Auto Regression, Price Stabilisation JEL Classification: F12, F13, F15 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2021-07-15 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/491 10.30908/bilp.v15i1.491 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 15 No. 1 (2021): ; 127-156 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 15 No 1 (2021): ; 127-156 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v15i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/491/314 Copyright (c) 2021 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/538 2021-07-16T13:30:20Z bilp:ART

EXCHANGE RATES ELASTICITY OF EXPORTS IN ASEAN: THE ROLE OF GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS Oktaviani, Defy Shrestha, Nagendra Export Exchange Rate Global Value Chain Abstrak Perdebatan tentang pelemahan hubungan antara nilai tukar dan ekspor telah meningkat dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, dan meningkatnya tren perdagangan terkait rantai nilai global (Global Value Chain/GVC) diasumsikan menjadi sumber melemahnya hubungan di antara keduanya. Dengan menggunakan data spesifik industri manufaktur, studi ini bertujuan untuk menyelidiki dampak GVC pada hubungan Nilai Tukar Efektif Riil (Real Effective Exchange Rate/REER) dan ekspor di empat negara ASEAN. Estimasi dilakukan menggunakan regresi Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) untuk periode sampel dari tahun 2009 hingga 2015. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa di Filipina, koefisien elastisitas nilai tukar ekspor dan partisipasi ke GVC tidak signifikan secara statistik. Sebaliknya di Indonesia dan Malaysia, secara rata-rata, integrasi ke GVC dengan berbagai pengukuran akan menurunkan elastisitas ekspor terhadap perubahan REER sekitar 70% sampai 89%. Lebih lanjut, estimasi terhadap data Thailand dan kelompok empat negara ASEAN menunjukkan bahwa partisipasi pada GVC mengubah nilai dan tanda elastisitas ekspor terhadap REER. Kata Kunci: Ekspor, Nilai Tukar, Rantai Nilai Global   Abstract The debate on the issue of the disconnected relationship between exchange rates and exports has risen in recent years, with the growing trend of Global Value Chain (GVC)-related trade assumed to be the source of the weakening link between them. By employing manufacturing industry-specific data, this study aims to investigate the impact of GVC on the nexus of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and exports in four ASEAN countries. The estimations are conducted using Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) regression for the sample period from 2009 to 2015. The findings of this study suggest that for the Philippines, the coefficients of exchange rate elasticity of export and participation to GVC are not statistically significant. Conversely, in the case of Indonesia and Malaysia, integration to GVC, with various measurements, will reduce the REER elasticity of exports by around 70% to 89% on average. Furthermore, the estimation data on Thailand and a group of four countries implies that the presence of GVC changes both the value and the sign of REER elasticity of exports. Keywords: Export, Exchange Rates, Global Value Chain JEL Classification: F14, F15, F31 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2021-07-15 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/538 10.30908/bilp.v15i1.538 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 15 No. 1 (2021): ; 1-26 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 15 No 1 (2021): ; 1-26 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v15i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/538/297 Copyright (c) 2021 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/539 2021-12-24T15:24:35Z bilp:ART

ECO-LABELING AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS: THE CASE OF MARINE STEWARDSHIP COUNCIL CERTIFICATION FOR INDONESIA'S SHRIMP POTENTIAL MARKET Yaumidin, Umi Karomah Zuas, Oman Kebijakan Perdagangan Trade Policy International Trade Cost and Benefit Analysis Penangkapan Ikan Sustainability Abstrak Artikel ini membahas analisis biaya dan manfaat dari Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) untuk ekspor udang putih (Litopenaeus vannamei) dan udang windu (Penaeus monodon) dari Indonesia. Penerapan MSC pada produk perikanan memang tidak wajib, tetapi dapat mempengaruhi kinerja eskpor Indonesia. Perhitungan analisa biaya dan manfaat untuk proyek MSC menggunakan beberapa pilihan yang dihitung ke dalam empat komponen analysis yang terpisah (Proyek, Privat, Efisiensi, dan kelompok penerima manfaat). Dengan menggunakan data tahun 2018 dan jangka waktu investasi selama 20 tahun, kajian ini membandingkan hasil investasi yang menerapkan standard MSC dengan hasil investasi yang tidak menerapkan standard MSC dengan mempertimbangkan hambatan dari biaya perdagangan internasional. Secara keselurahan, studi ini menunjukkan bahwa the Net Present Values (NPVs) and Internal Rate of Returns (IRRs) bersifat konsisten untuk semua pilihan analysis. Studi ini juga menyimpulkan bahwa berdasarkan hasil dari analisis pasar, Amerika Serikat adalah pasar yang menjanjikan bagi produk udang Indonesia yang berlabelkan MSC. Pemerintah Indonesia akan menikmati 13% kenaikan pendapatan dari pajak keuntungan bisnis tersebut, meskipun proyek ini tidak memberikan dampak perubahan kepada tenaga kerja tidak terampil. Oleh karena itu, studi ini merekomendasikan pemerintah Indonesia untuk mempromosikan program MSC untuk perikanan berkelanjutan, terutama bagi peningkatan kinerja eskpor udang Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Kebijakan Perdagangan, Perikanan Tangkap, Keberlanjutan, Cost-Benefit Analysis   Abstract This paper discusses the cost and benefits analysis of the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) for Indonesia's exports of white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) and tiger prawns (Penaeus monodon). The MSC adoption is voluntary, but it is likely to affect the performance of Indonesia's exports. We use several options applied separately in four components analysis in performing the social cost and benefit analysis (Project, Private, Efficiency, and Referral Group). Using the 2018 data and a 20-year investment period, this study compares the investment results applying the MSC standard with the results without investing in the MSC procedures concerning the trade cost barriers. Overall, the results reveal that the Net Present Values (NPVs) and Internal Rate of Returns (IRRs) are consistent for all options in all feasibility component analyses. It concludes that based on market analysis, the US market is the promising market as a primary export destination for Indonesian shrimp products with MSC label. The government will benefit by 13% from profit taxes, while this project does not affect unskilled labor benefits. Therefore, it recommends that the Indonesian government take more action to promote the MSC program for sustainable fisheries and boost shrimp export performance. Keywords: Trade Policy, Capture Fisheries, Sustainability, Cost-Benefit Analysis JEL Classification: F13, Q22, Q56, H43 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2021-12-24 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/539 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.539 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 15 No. 2 (2021): .; 209-234 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .; 209-234 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v15i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/539/326 Copyright (c) 2021 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/555 2021-12-25T15:19:02Z bilp:ART

IDENTIFIKASI KENDALA PEMBIAYAAN KOMODITAS PERTANIAN SISTEM RESI GUDANG DI INDONESIA Siadari, Karmex Maarif, M. Syamsul Arifin, Bustanul Rangkuti, Zulkifli Rangkuti Pembiayaan Komoditas Pertanian Sistem Resi Gudang Agricultural Commodity Financing Warehouse Receipt System Abstrak Pembiayaan komoditas pertanian sistem resi gudang belum berlangsung sesuai harapan di Indonesia. Hal tersebut menurut beberapa studi karena masih banyak permasalahan penghambat. Studi ini mengidentifikasi kendala pembiayaan komoditas pertanian sistem resi gudang di Indonesia. Penelitian dilakukan melalui wawancara mendalam terhadap responden tertentu yang memiliki pengetahuan atau pengalaman pada pembiayaan komoditas pertanian berbasis sistem resi gudang yang diimplentasikan terhadap komoditas pertanian seperti kopi, lada, beras dan jagung. Data yang dikumpulkan diidentifikasi, dikelompokkan dan diklasifikasikan secara terstruktur di dalam pola berfikir strategis dan dianalisa secara analisa deskriptif. Penelitian ini berhasil menemukan faktor penghambat pembiayaan komoditas pertanian sistem resi gudang di Indonesia antara lain: ketidaksesuaian nilai manfaat yang dibangun dengan karakteristik petani di Indonesia khususnya petani kecil; keterbatasan sumber layanan, ketidakcocokan skema dan fitur pembiayaan, harga pembiayaan dan skala ekonomi petani, suplai informasi yang memengaruhi kesadaran pada pembiayaannya. Permasalahan tersebut harus dapat diminimalisasi sehingga meningkatkan aksesibilitas dan kelangsungan pembiayaan sistem SRG pada petani di Indonesia. Kata kunci: Pembiayaan Komoditas Pertanian, Kendala, Sistem Resi Gudang   Abstract Agricultural commodity financing in the warehouse receipt system has not performed as expected in Indonesia. According to several studies, it is due to many obstacles hindering the system to grow. This study identifies the constraints on agricultural commodities financing on the warehouse receipt system. The research was conducted through in-depth interviews with certain respondents who have knowledge or experience in agricultural commodities financing based on a warehouse receipt system implemented on agricultural commodities such as coffee, pepper, rice, and maize. The collected data are identified, grouped, and classified in a structured manner in the pattern of strategic thinking and analyzed by descriptive analysis. The study succeeded to identify the barriers that hindering agricultural commodities financing in warehouse receipt system to grow in Indonesia: the incompatibility of the value built with the characteristics of agriculture business, especially for small farmers; limited financing sources, incompatibility of financing schemes and features, financing prices and farmer economies of scale and supply of information that affects awareness of financing. These problems must be minimized to encourage the accessibility and continuity of financing on WRS for farmers in Indonesia. Keywords: Agricultural Commodity Financing, Contraints, Warehouse Receipt System JEL Classification: D46, F6, F61, F65, Q14 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2021-12-24 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/555 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.555 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 15 No. 2 (2021): .; 277-296 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .; 277-296 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v15i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/555/336 Copyright (c) 2021 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/570 2021-12-24T15:23:08Z bilp:ART

ANALISIS PERDAGANGAN INTRA INDUSTRI REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP) PADA PRODUK PERTANIAN Putri, Rahma Meiliza Rifin, Amzul Erwidodo Intra-industry Trade RCEP Agricultural Sector Sektor Pertanian Abstrak Perdagangan intra-industri memainkan peranan penting dalam literatur ekonomi internasional saat ini. Pada tahun 2019, total ekspor Indonesia ke negara-negara anggota RCEP sebesar 61,65% dari total ekspor Indonesia, dan 44% dari total ekspor ke RCEP disumbang oleh sektor pertanian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji tingkat interdependensi Indonesia dengan 14 mitra dagangnya dalam RCEP. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder time series arus perdagangan komoditi pertanian Indonesia dengan negara-negara RCEP di tahun 2010-2019 yang diperoleh dari Trademap. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah intra-industry trade index. Hasil kajian pola perdagangan Indonesia dan RCEP yang diidentifikasi melalui keterkaitan perdagangan (IIT) menunjukkan komoditas yang memiliki nilai rata-rata IIT tertinggi adalah olahan tepung-tepungan (HS 19). Hal ini menunjukkan jika keterkaitan perdagangan Indonesia RCEP untuk produk tepung-tepungan (HS 19) bersifat dua arah (two-way trade). Sedangkan untuk negara, Malaysia adalah negara yang memiliki keterkaitan perdagangan terkuat dengan Indonesia. Nilai rata-rata IIT Indonesia-RCEP sebesar 19,74 menggambarkan keterkaitan banyak produk pertanian Indonesia dan RCEP yang masih rendah dan tergolong inter-industry trade. Rendahnya nilai IIT ini bisa saja disebabkan masih besarnya perdagangan satu arah di RCEP, dimana Indonesia masih dominan melakukan impor. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi pemerintah untuk lebih meningkatkan ekspor komoditas potensial dengan memberi insentif kepada industri pengolahan produk pertanian melalui keringanan pajak dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Kata kunci: Intra-industry Trade, RCEP, Sektor Pertanian   Abstract Intra-industrial trade plays an important role in today's international economic literature. In 2019, Indonesia's total exports to RCEP member countries amounted to 61.65% of Indonesia's total exports, and 44% of total exports to RCEP were contributed by the agricultural sector. This study aims to examine the level of interdependence between Indonesia and its 14 trading partners in RCEP. The data used is secondary data from the time series of trade flows of agricultural commodities between Indonesia and RCEP countries in 2010-2019 which were obtained from Trademap. The data analysis method used is the intra-industry trade index. The results of the study show, if there is a tendency to increase the IIT index of Indonesia with trading partners, it's just that when viewed from each RCEP member, the IIT value still tends to fluctuate. Malaysia is an RCEP member country with the highest IIT score in its agricultural sector, on the other hand, the agricultural sector in Cambodia has the lowest IIT score. Cereal and flour processed commodities (HS 19) were the commodities with the highest IIT, while meat and edible meat scraps (HS 02) were the commodities with the lowest value. Based on the results of the IIT value, it can be seen that many agricultural products are still classified as inter-industry trade. Therefore, it is important for the government to further increase potential commodity exports by providing incentives to processing agricultural industries through tax breaks for a certain period. Keywords: Intra-industry Trade, RCEP, Agricultural Sector JEL Classification: F10, F13, F1 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2021-12-24 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/570 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.570 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 15 No. 2 (2021): .; 181-208 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .; 181-208 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v15i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/570/327 Copyright (c) 2021 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/594 2025-02-05T13:50:09Z bilp:ART

KETERKAITAN GLOBALISASI DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN INKLUSIF PADA NEGARA-NEGARA ASEAN BERPENDAPATAN MENENGAH Lestari, Titis Kusuma Santoso, Dwi Budi Saputra, Putu Mahardika Adi Globalization Inclusive Economy Infrastructure 3SLS Abstrak Seiring perkembangan zaman, arus globalisasi dan gelombang teknologi menimbulkan kompetisi di pasar internasional. Untuk memenangkan kompetisi, beberapa negara mendorong kebijakan ke arah keterbukaan perdagangan dan menarik investasi asing sebanyak mungkin. Kebijakan tersebut akan mempercepat pembangunan dan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun juga akan meningkatkan ketimpangan pendapatan. Dalam penelitian ini dikaji mengenai keterkaitan antara ekspor dan investasi asing, sebagai indikator globalisasi, dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ketimpangan pendapatan, sebagai indikator pertumbuhan inklusif, di negara ASEAN berpendapatan menengah dengan menggunakan analisis regresi panel Three Stage Least Square (3SLS) selama periode 1995-2015. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa, dalam konsep globalisasi, terdapat hubungan dua arah yang signifikan antara ekspor dan investasi asing. Di sisi lain, dalam konsep pertumbuhan inklusif, juga terdapat hubungan dua arah yang signifikan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ketimpangan pendapatan. Sementara itu, ekspor dan investasi asing, sebagai indikator globalisasi, secara positif dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif hanya di negara ASEAN berpendapatan menengah ke atas. Oleh karena itu, direkomendasikan untuk mendorong kebijakan yang mempermudah ekspor, khususnya untuk produk yang bernilai tambah tinggi dan berdaya saing, sehingga kontribusi ekspor meningkat dan mampu mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi negaranya. Kata Kunci: Globalisasi, Ekonomi Inklusif, Infrastruktur, 3SLS   Abstract In the middle of the last century, globalization and technological waves have created competition in the international market. To win the competition, some countries are pushing policies toward trade openness and attracting as much foreign investment as possible. These policies will accelerate development and increase economic growth, but will also increase income inequality. This study examines the relationship between exports and foreign investment, as an indicator of globalization, with economic growth and income inequality, as an indicator of inclusive growth, in middle-income ASEAN countries using a Three Stage Least Square (3SLS) panel regression analysis during the period 1995-2015. The empirical finding indicates that, in the concept of globalization, there is a significant two-way relationship between exports and foreign investment. On the other hand, in the concept of inclusive growth, there is also a significant two-way relationship between economic growth and income inequality. Meanwhile, exports and foreign investment, as indicators of globalization, can positively encourage inclusive economic growth only in upper middle-income ASEAN countries. Therefore, it is recommended to encourage policies that facilitate exports, especially for products that have high added value and competitive products, so that the contribution of exports increases and is able to increase the country's economic growth. Keywords: Globalization, Inclusive Economy, Infrastructure, 3SLS JEL Classification: F40, F62, I00, O18 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2022-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/594 10.30908/bilp.v16i1.594 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 16 No. 1 (2022): BILP ; 79-102 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BILP ; 79-102 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v16i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/594/366 Copyright (c) 2022 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/609 2021-12-24T15:21:42Z bilp:ART

PENGARUH KUOTA EKSPOR TERHADAP HARGA KARET DOMESTIK INDONESIA Alfi Nurdina Harmini Rifin, Amzul Karet Alam Natural Rubber Domestic Price ECM AETS Abstrak Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme merupakan kebijakan pembatasan kuota ekspor karet alam oleh Indonesia, Malaysia dan Thailand. Kebijakan ini diduga memengaruhi harga karet alam di tingkat petani. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan kuota ekspor terhadap harga karet alam domestik Indonesia di tingkat petani. Penelitian menggunakan data time series bulanan dari Januari 2013 sampai Desember 2019 menggunakan Error Correction Model. Dalam jangka panjang, harga karet alam pada periode sebelumnya, nilai tukar, konsumsi, produksi dan harga karet alam dunia signifikan. Sementara itu, dalam jangka pendek, harga karet alam pada periode sebelumnya, nilai tukar, dan harga karet alam dunia juga signifikan. Variabel total ekspor dan dummy kebijakan tidak signifikan baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Hal ini diduga karena harga karet alam tidak lagi bergantung pada faktor fundamental tetapi disebabkan oleh faktor eksternal lainnya. Perbaikan diperlukan, termasuk desain kebijakan yang komprehensif, implementasi dan evaluasi teknis yang jelas, serta kolaborasi tambahan dengan produsen karet alam lainnya. Selain itu, sejalan dengan kebijakan pembatasan ekspor, Indonesia perlu mendorong pertumbuhan industri pengolahan karet alam menjadi produk hilir. Kata Kunci: ECM, Karet Alam, Harga Domestik, AETS   Abstract Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme is a policy of limiting natural rubber export quotas by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. This policy is suspected to affect the price of natural rubber at the farm level. This study aims to analyze the effect of the export quota policy on Indonesia's domestic natural rubber prices at the farm level. The study uses monthly time series data from January 2013 to December 2019 used Error Correction Model. In the long term, natural rubber prices in the previous period, exchange rate, consumption, production, and world natural rubber prices are significant. Meanwhile, in the short term, natural rubber prices in the previous period, exchange rates, and world price natural rubber were significant. The variable total exports and the policy dummy are not significant both in the long and short term. This is presumably because natural rubber prices no longer depend on fundamental factors but are caused by other external factors. Improvements are needed, including comprehensive policy design, clear technical implementation, and evaluation, as well as additional collaboration with other natural rubber producers. In addition, in line with the export restriction policy, Indonesia needs to encourage the growth of the natural rubber processing industry into downstream products Keywords: ECM, Natural Rubber, Domestic Price, AETS JEL Classification: Q17, Q18, Q21 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2021-12-24 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/609 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.609 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 15 No. 2 (2021): .; 257-276 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .; 257-276 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v15i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/609/328 Copyright (c) 2021 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/623 2021-12-24T15:20:11Z bilp:ART

STRUKTUR PASAR DAN DAYA SAING KARET ALAM INDONESIA DI AMERIKA SERIKAT Sembiring, Birka Septy Syaukat, Yusman Hastuti Concentration Ratio Diamond’s Porter EPD Herfindahl Index RCA Abstrak Karet alam Indonesia berperan penting dalam meningkatkan perekonomian nasional melalui ekspor karet alam ke berbagai negara, termasuk ke Amerika Serikat. Dalam upaya mengembangkan ekspor karet alamnya, Indonesia perlu melakukan kalkulasi posisi dan daya saing karet alam di antara negara-negara pesaing serta peluang pasarnya ke Amerika Serikat yang memiliki permintaan impor relatif tinggi. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis struktur pasar, serta keunggulan komparatif dan kompetitif karet alam Indonesia di pasar Amerika Serikat. Analisis dilakukan selama periode tahun 2008-2019 menggunakan metode Herfindahl Index (HI), Concentration Ratio (CR4), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), dan Diamond’s Porter. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa struktur pasar karet alam Indonesia cenderung oligopoli. Dibandingkan dengan negara-negara eksportir lainnya, karet alam Indonesia memiliki keunggulan komparatif di pasar Amerika Serikat. Keunggulan kompetitif karet alam Indonesia di Amerika Serikat mengalami penurunan dari posisi lost opportunity pada periode pertama (2008-2011) menjadi retreat pada periode ketiga (2016-2019). Hasil dari Diamond’s Porter menunjukkan bahwa terdapat tujuh faktor keunggulan kompetitif dan tiga faktor kelemahan dalam industri karet alam di Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Concentration Ratio, Diamond’s Porter, EPD, Herfindahl Index, RCA Abstract Indonesian natural rubber plays a significant role in improving the national economy through exports of natural rubber to various countries, including the United States. In an effort to develop its natural rubber exports, Indonesia needs to calculate the position and competitiveness of natural rubber among competing countries and its market opportunities to the United States, which has a relatively high import demand. The purpose of this study is to analyze the market structure, as well as the comparative and competitive advantages of Indonesian natural rubber in the United States market. The analysis was carried out during the period 2008-2019 using the methods Herfindahl Index (HI), Concentration Ratio (CR4), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), and Diamond's Porter. The results of the analysis show that the structure of the Indonesian natural rubber market tends to be an oligopoly. Compared to other exporting countries, Indonesian natural rubber has a comparative advantage in the United States market. The competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber in the US decline over time from the lost opportunity position in the first period (2008-2011) to retreat in the third period (2016-2019). The Diamond's Porter results show that there are seven competitive advantage factors and three weakness factors in Indonesia's natural rubber industry. Keywords: Concentration Ratio, Diamond’s Porter, EPD, Herfindahl Index, RCA JEL Classification: F13, F15, F18 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2021-12-24 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/623 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.623 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 15 No. 2 (2021): .; 235-256 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .; 235-256 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v15i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/623/333 Copyright (c) 2021 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/633 2021-12-24T15:18:45Z bilp:ART

SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN PADA IMPLEMENTASI PERJANJIAN KOMPREHENSIF INDONESIA-AUSTRALIA (IA-CEPA) TERHADAP PASAR DAGING SAPI DOMESTIK Helmiah, Najia Nasrudin 2SLS IA-CEPA Pasar Daging Sapi Beef Market Abstrak Beberapa tahun terakhir, pemenuhan permintaan daging sapi di Indonesia masih bergantung pada impor khususnya dari Australia. Impor daging sapi dapat menstabilkan harga daging sapi domestik, tetapi di lain sisi dapat menekan pendapatan peternak lokal. Implementasi dari  IA-CEPA adalah penghapusan tarif impor dan TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) untuk komoditas sapi hidup. Penghapusan tarif menyebabkan harga sapi yang masuk ke Indonesia menjadi lebih murah dan memperbesar peluang peningkatan volume impor sapi hidup. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis skenario terbaik untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi dengan menggunakan model persamaan simultan 2SLS (two stage least square). Simulasi dilakukan untuk tiga skenario yaitu skenario penghapusan tarif, penetapan kuota, dan TRQ. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa skenario penghapusan tarif memberikan total peningkatan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi terbesar yaitu 115 miliar dengan rincian defisit 736 miliar bagi produsen, surplus 936 miliar bagi konsumen, dan defisit 85 miliar untuk penerimaan pemerintah. Oleh karena itu, skenario yang direkomendasikan adalah skenario penghapusan tarif pada impor sapi dari Australia. Kata Kunci: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Pasar Daging Sapi   Abstract Recently, demand fulfillment of beef in Indonesia depended on imports, especially from Australia. import can stabilize the domestic price of beef, but the other hand can suppress the income of local farmers. Implementation of IA-CEPA policies is the elimination of import tariff and TRQ (tariff rate quota) for live cattle commodities. Elimination of import tariff causes the price of cattle to enter Indonesia to be cheaper and increases the opportunity to increase the import volume of live cattle. The study aims to investigate the best scenario that can improve the welfare of economic actors using simultaneous equation model 2SLS (two-stage least squares). Three scenarios that simulated are eliminating tariff, setting quota, and TRQ. The result shows that eliminating tariffs gives the largest total welfare increase of economic actors that is 115 billion, with a 736 billion deficit for producers, 936 billion surplus for consumers, and 85 billion deficit for government revenue. Therefore, the policy recommendation is the scenario of eliminating tariffs on cattle imports from Australia. Keywords: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Beef Market  JEL Classification: C53, F12, F13 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2021-12-24 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/633 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.633 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 15 No. 2 (2021): .; 157-180 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .; 157-180 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v15i2 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/633/335 Copyright (c) 2021 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/684 2025-02-05T13:49:52Z bilp:ART

MARSHALL-LERNER CONDITION PADA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA – TIONGKOK Ramana, Febria Marshall-Lerner Condition Bilateral Swap Currency Arrangement Tarde Balance Deficit Exchange Rate Abstrak Satu dekade terakhir, neraca perdagangan Indonesia dengan partner dagang terbesarnya, Tiongkok, mengalami defisit yang makin meningkat. Salah satu opsi kebijakan yang banyak menjadi perhatian adalah kebijakan devaluasi atau depresiasi. Depresiasi dinilai dapat memberikan dampak baik bagi neraca perdagangan di negara berkembang, tetapi manfaat tersebut tidak berlaku untuk semua kasus. Beberapa literatur menyatakan suatu negara harus memenuhi prasyarat Marshall-Lerner Condition untuk menerima manfaat tersebut. BSCA dapat memengaruhi penggunaan rupiah dan yuan juga mendorong urgensi peninjauan ulang prasyarat tersebut pada perdagangan bilateral Indonesia dan Tiongkok. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi apakah Indonesia dapat menerima manfaat saat terjadinya depresiasi rupiah terhadap yuan dengan terpenuhinya Marshall-Lerner Condition. Penelitian ini menggunakan Impulse Response Function dengan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) untuk mengidentifikasi kondisi tersebut. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa prasyarat Marshall-Lerner Condition terpenuhi, tetapi ternyata kondisi tersebut tidak cukup menjamin untuk memperbaiki neraca perdagangan ketika rupiah terdepresiasi. Oleh karena itu, pemerintah harus berhati-hati saat terdepresiasinya rupiah terhadap yuan. Pemerintah perlu memperbaiki struktur ekspor-impor dengan memperkuat diversifikasi produk dan kebijakan substitusi impor. Sementara itu, dalam jangka panjang, manajemen risiko yang lebih komprehensif terhadap volatilitas yuan perlu diperhatikan. Kata Kunci: Marshall-Lerner Condition, Bilateral Swap Currency Arrangement, Defisit, Neraca Perdagangan, Kurs   Abstract In the last decade, Indonesia's trade balance with its largest trading partner, China, has experienced an increasing deficit. One of the policy alternatives that has received policymakers’ attention is currency devaluation or depreciation. Depreciation is considered to have a good impact on the trade balance for developing countries, but this benefit does not apply to all cases. Some literature state that a country must meet the Marshall-Lerner Condition to receive these benefits. BSCA will affect the use of the rupiah and the yuan, which lead to the urgency of reexamining this prerequisite for bilateral trade between Indonesia and China. This study aims to identify whether Indonesia can receive benefits when the rupiah depreciates against the yuan by fulfilling the Marshall-Lerner condition. This study uses the Impulse Response Function as a tool in the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method to identify the condition. The results estimate that the Marshall-Lerner Condition is fulfilled, but this condition is not enough to ensure trade balance improvement as the rupiah depreciates. Therefore, the government must be careful when the rupiah depreciates against the yuan. The government needs to improve the export-import structure by strengthening export product diversification and import substitution policies. Meanwhile, in the long term, more comprehensive risk management of yuan volatility needs to be considered. Keywords: Marshall-Lerner Condition, Bilateral Swap Currency Arrangement, Deficit, Trade Balance, Exchange Rate JEL Classification: F13, F14, F31 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2022-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/684 10.30908/bilp.v16i1.684 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 16 No. 1 (2022): BILP ; 59-78 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BILP ; 59-78 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v16i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/684/365 Copyright (c) 2022 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/692 2025-02-05T13:49:36Z bilp:ART

KINERJA EKSPOR INDONESIA DAN PERSEPSI KONSUMEN PAKISTAN TERHADAP MINYAK SAWIT DAN PRODUK TURUNANNYA Tampubolon, Bahroin Idris Hastuti Firdaus, Muhammad Anggraeni, Lukytawati Muna, Naufa Crude Palm Oil Pakistan Logistic Regression Analysis of Brand Loyalty Cooking Oil Abstrak Pakistan merupakan negara nontradisional mitra dagang strategis Indonesia. Pakistan mengimpor Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Indonesia untuk memenuhi kebutuhan minyak makan. Industri minyak makan di Pakistan memiliki karakter sangat kompetitif, hambatan masuk (barrier to entry) yang rendah, dan cenderung sensitif terhadap perubahan harga. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu: (1) Menganalisis kinerja ekspor minyak sawit dan produk turunannya di Pakistan; (2) Menganalisis tingkat pengetahuan dan faktor yang memengaruhi konsumen rumatangga Pakistan terhadap minyak sawit dan produk turunannya asal Indonesia; (3) Menganalisis tingkat loyalitas konsumen rumah tangga di Pakistan terhadap produk cooking oil. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis deskriptif kualitatif, analisis regresi logistik, dan analisis loyalitas konsumen. Hasil analisis menyajikan kinerja ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia ke Pakistan mengalami trend peningkatan sejak tahun 2012 dan salah satunya disebabkan penandatangan Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA). Konsumen rumahtangga di Pakistan sebagian besar tidak mengenal CPO atau produk hasil turunannya serta tidak memahami isu lingkungan terkait industri kelapa sawit. Terdapat empat variable yang memengaruhi peluang responden mengetahui CPO dan produk turunannya yaitu lokasi tempat tinggal, dummy frekuensi konsumsi cooking oil, dummy frekuensi konsumsi margarine, dan dummy frekuensi es krim. Konsumen di Pakistan merupakan konsumen yang tergolong dalam kelompok liking the brand dengan tidak sepenuhnya switcher buyer. Kata Kunci: Crude Palm Oil, Pakistan, Regresi Logistik, Analisis Loyalitas Konsumen, Cooking Oil   Abstract Pakistan is a non-traditional trading partner country that is a strategic r for Indonesia. Pakistan imports Crude Palm Oil (CPO) to meet the needs for edible oil. Pakistan’s cooking oil industry is highly competitive with low barriers to entry, also moderately sensitive to price changes. The aims of this research are to (1) analyze the export performance of palm oil and its derivative products; (2) analyze the level of knowledge and the factors that influence Pakistani consumers; (3) analyze the level of loyalty of household consumers to cooking oil. The research used descriptive qualitative analysis, logistic regression analysis, and analysis of brand loyalty. The results of the analysis showed that Indonesian palm oil exports to Pakisthavehas had an increasing trend since 2012, caused by the implementation of the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA). Most consumers in Pakistan were not familiar with CPO or its derivative products and did not understand the environmental issues related to the palm oil industry. There are four variables that affect the probability of respondents knowing CPO and derivative products, namely, location of residence, dummy frequency of cooking oil consumption, dummy frequency of margarine consumption, and dummy frequency of ice cream. Generally, Pakistan consumers are a group of consumers that liking the brand group. Keywords: Crude Palm Oil, Pakistan, Logistic Regression, Analysis of Brand Loyalty, Cooking Oil JEL Classification: C25, D12, F14, Q17 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2022-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/692 10.30908/bilp.v16i1.692 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 16 No. 1 (2022): BILP ; 41-58 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BILP ; 41-58 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v16i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/692/364 Copyright (c) 2022 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/696 2025-02-05T13:49:18Z bilp:ART

POTENSI DIVERSIFIKASI PASAR EKSPOR KARET ALAM INDONESIA Meliany, Birka Septy Syaukat, Yusman Widyastutik Natural Rubber Demand Index Market Share Index Statistic Trend Ranking Structure (Export) Match Index Abstrak Diversifikasi pasar karet alam ke negara nontradisional menjadi salah satu solusi Indonesia meningkatkan nilai ekspor dan menghilangkan ketergantungan pada negara tradisional. Tujuan penelitian ini mengidentifikasi pasar ekspor nontradisional karet alam Indonesia dan menganalisis pangsa pasar karet alam Indonesia di negara nontradisional. Analisis dilakukan selama periode tahun 1990-2019. Identifikasi pasar ekspor nontradisional karet alam Indonesia menggunakan metode Statistic Trend Ranking (STR), Structural (Exports) Match Index (SMI), dan demand index. Market Share Index (MSI) dan kuantitatif digunakan untuk menganalisis pangsa pasar karet alam Indonesia di negara nontradisional. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa terdapat 18 negara yang masuk kategori pasar nontradisional untuk karet alam Indonesia yaitu Kamboja, Pantai Gading, Republik Dominika, Guatemala, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, Myanmar, Namibia, Nigeria, Makedonia Utara, Filipina, Rusia, Tanzania, Ukraina, dan Vietnam. Terdapat tiga negara nontradisional dengan pangsa pasar ekspor karet alam tertinggi Indonesia melalui Market Share Index yaitu India, Filipina dan Rusia yang didukung dengan kondisi makroekonomi yang baik. Kata Kunci: Karet Alam, Demand index, Market Share Index (MSI), Statistic Trend Ranking (STR), Structural (Exports) Match Index (SMI)   Abstract Diversification of the natural rubber market to nontraditional countries is one solution for Indonesia to increase export value and eliminate dependence on traditional countries. The purpose of this study is to identify the non-traditional export market of Indonesian natural rubber and analyze the market share of Indonesian natural rubber in nontraditional countries. The analysis was carried out over the period 1990-2019. Identification of nontraditional Indonesian natural rubber export markets using the Statistical Trend Ranking (STR), Structural (Exports) Match Index (SMI), and demand index. Market Share Index (MSI) and quantitative are used to analyze the market share of Indonesian natural rubber in non-traditional countries. The results of the analysis show that there are 18 countries that are included in the non-traditional market category for Indonesian natural rubber, namely Cambodia, Ivory Coast, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, Myanmar, Namibia, Nigeria, North Macedonia, Philippines, Russia, Tanzania, Ukraine, and Vietnam. There are three non-traditional countries with the highest market share for Indonesian natural rubber exports through the Market Share Index, namely India, the Philippines, and Russia, which are supported by good macroeconomic conditions. Keywords: Natural Rubber, Demand Index, Market Share Index (MSI), Statistic Trend Ranking (STR), Structural (Exports) Match Index (SMI) JEL Classification: F13, F15, F18 Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia 2022-07-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Open Submissions, Peer-Reviewed application/pdf https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/696 10.30908/bilp.v16i1.696 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol. 16 No. 1 (2022): BILP ; 25-40 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan; Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BILP ; 25-40 2528-2751 1979-9187 10.30908/bilp.v16i1 eng https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/696/363 Copyright (c) 2022 Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan