ASEAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT IMPLEMENTATION FOR INDONESIAN TRADING PERFORMANCE: A GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

Yuventus Effendi

Abstract


Salah satu tujuan dari pelaksanaan AFTA adalah untuk mengurangi hambatan perdagangan dengan mengurangi tarif impor antar anggota ASEAN dengan asumsi bahwa jika tarif lebih rendah atau nol, seharusnya terdapat peningkatan nilai perdagangan antara anggota ASEAN. Penelitian ini menguji apakah pelaksanaan AFTA memiliki dampak pada kinerja ekspor Indonesia dan kontribusi kendala di belakang perbatasan (behind the border constraints) terhadap kinerja ekspor Indonesia seperti administrasi bea dan cukai. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan model gravitasi dengan analisis stochastic frontier yang berbeda dari penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya tentang kinerja perdagangan Indonesia yang menggunakan estimasi OLS. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa, secara empiris, GDP , jarak, populasi, nilai tukar, tarif, dan keanggotaan di ASEAN signifikan mempengaruhi perdagangan Indonesia dengan negara partner. Lebih lanjut, hasil estimasi stochastic frontier menunjukkan bahwa kendala di belakang perbatasan menurun setiap tahunnya. Namun, ekspor Indonesia masih under trade dengan semua negara ASEAN yang mengindikasikan rendahnya pemanfaatan AFTA. Di sisi lain, ekspor Indonesia over trade dengan Cina dan hampir berada di tingkat yang optimal dengan Amerika Serikat, Jepang, dan Belanda. Implikasi dari penelitian ini adalah bahwa pemerintah Indonesia harus mempromosikan lebih banyak ekspor dengan negara-negara ASEAN untuk mencapai tujuan dari deklarasi AFTA dua dekade lalu.

 

One objective of the AFTA implementation is to reduce trading constraints by reducing import tariffs among ASEAN’s members with the assumption that if tariffs are lower or zero, there should be an increase in intra-trading value among ASEAN members. This study examines whether the implementation of the AFTA has had any impact on Indonesia’s export performance and ‘behind the border’ constraints contribution in Indonesia’s exports such as customs administrations. The study uses the gravity model approach with a stochastic frontier analysis which is different from previous research about Indonesia’s trading performance that uses OLS estimation. The results show that, empirically, GDP, distance, population, exchange rate, and membership in ASEAN significantly affect Indonesia’s trading with partner country. Furthermore, stochastic frontier analysis’ results show that ‘behind the border’ constraints decrease overtime. However, Indonesia’s exports is under trade with all ASEAN countries which indicates the low utilisation of AFTA. On the other hand, Indonesia’s exports are over trade with China and almost at optimal level of exports with the US, Japan, and the Netherlands. The implication of this study is that the Indonesian government should promote more exports with ASEAN countries to accomplish the objectives of the AFTA declaration two decades ago.


Keywords


Indonesia; FTA; Trading Performance; Gravity Model; Stochastic Frontier Analysis; Trading Performance

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v8i1.87

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