DAMPAK DEVALUASI YUAN TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA PENDEKATAN MODEL PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN

Febria Ramana, Nasrudin Nasrudin

Abstract


Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak devaluasi yuan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan skenario simulasi model persamaan simultan dengan metode estimasi Two Stage Least Square (2SLS). Hasil dari analisis ini menunjukkan bahwa devaluasi yuan berdampak signifikan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia melalui jalur perdagangan dan investasi. Pada blok perdagangan, devaluasi yuan menyebabkan ekspor Indonesia ke negara lain mengalami penurunan, terutama ekspor ke China karena devaluasi yuan lebih besar dibandingkan rupiah. Hal ini membuat produk China relatif lebih murah dibandingkan Indonesia. Pada blok investasi, total investasi meningkat karena investor beralih dari China ke Indonesia yang didorong tingkat pengembalian modal di China menurun. Sementara itu, pada blok moneter, nilai rupiah dan PDB Indonesia menurun akibat penurunan net ekspor lebih besar dibandingkan peningkatan FDI. Devaluasi rupiah pun memicu imported inflation. Secara keseluruhan, devaluasi yuan berdampak negatif bagi perekonomian Indonesia. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi Indonesia untuk mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap China, terutama dalam perdagangan. Hal ini dapat dilakukan dengan diversifikasi pasar dan peningkatan kualitas produk ekspor.

 

This paper examines and provides an analysis regarding the impact of an economic shock, yuan devaluation, on the Indonesian economy. We analyze a simulation scenario by using simultaneous equation model with two-stage least square (2SLS) method. Empirical findings exhibit that shock has the significant impact on Indonesian economy through both of trade and investment transmissions. In trade block, Indonesian export to China has the most decreasing rather than others countries because of yuan more decrease than rupiah. In investment block, a total of investment gets the impact to rise, particularly in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from China, caused by decreasing wealth of foreign investors in China.   Meanwhile, in the monetary block, the value of rupiah and Indonesian GDP simultaneously get the impact to decline, whereas yuan devalution leads Indonesian inflation to rise. Therefore, it is essential for the government to decrease Indonesian dependence on China, particularly in trade block. Some options which government should implement are market diversification and increasing export products quality.


Keywords


Devaluasi Yuan; Perekonomian Indonesia; Yuan Devaluation; Indonesian Economy; 2SLS; Simulation

Full Text:

PDF

References


BPS. (2016). Produk Domestik Bruto Indonesia Menurut pengeluaran Tahun 2011- 2015. Jakarta: BPS.

Bliemel, F. (1973). Theil's Forecast Accuracy Coefficient: A Clarification. Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 10(4), pp.444-446.

Bloomberg. (2016, Juni 29). China Said to Intervene in Offshore Yuan Market to Curb Declines. Bloomberg News. Diakses pada tanggal 8 Juli 2016 dari http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-29/china-s-yuan-strengthens-for-second-day-as-brexit-turmoil-abates.

Chaitanya. (2016). Impact of Devaluation of Yuan on Indian Economy and Select Global Stock Indices. International Journal of Management and Business Studies. Vol. 6(1). pp.14-16

Claessens and Kristin Forbes. (2004). International Financial Contagion: The Theory, Evidence and Policy Implications. IMF’s conference.

CNBC Staf. (2016, Maret 14). Chinese Yuan May Weaken to 7 Against Dollar By Year End Goldman Sachs Says. CNBC. Diakses pada tanggal 8 Juli 2016 dari http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/14/chinese-yuan-may-weaken-to-7-against-dollar-by-year-end-goldman-sachs-says.html.

DBS Group Research (2015). Economic Singapore when China Devalues. DBS Bank Ltd.

Forbes, Kristin. (2012). THE "BIG C": IDENTIFYING CONTAGION. Working Paper, NBER, 18465.

Gujarati, D. (2008) and Dawn Porter. Basic Econometrics 5th edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Harahap, A Berry et al. (2015). Dampak Spillover Shock Eksternal Pada Perekonomian Indonesia: Pendekatan Global VAR. Working Paper Bank Indonesia WP/2/2015.

Hooy, Law, dan Chan. (2015). The impact of Renminbi Real Exchange Rate on ASEAN Disaggregated Export to China. Economic Modelling. Vol 4. pp.253- 259.

IMF. (2016). Subdued Demand, Diminished Prospects. World Economy Outlook Update.

Imimole & Enomo. (2011) . Exchange Rate Depreciation and Inflation in Nigeria (1986-2008). Business and Economics Journal.

Jamilah, Sinaga, Tambunan dan Hakim. (2016). Dampak Perlambatan Ekonomi China dan Devaluasi Yuan Terhadap Kinerja Perdagangan Pertanian Indonesia. Ekuitas: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan. Vol. 20 No.3 pp. 325-245.

Jin, W., dan Zang Q. (2013). Impact of Change in Exchange Rate on Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from China. Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance, and Economics. Vol 4. pp.1-17.

Mar’ah, Suhadak dan Hidayat. (2016). Pengaruh Perubahan Nilai Tukar Tiongkok Terhadap US Dollar Amerika Serikat dan Dampaknya Terhadap Rupiah Indonesia (Studi pada Bloomberg dan Bank Indonesia 2012-2015). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis. Vol.35 No.2 pp.46-52

Nasrudin. (2014). Dampak Kebijakan Fiskal Terhadap Kinerja Perekonomian & Sektor Pertanian Indonesia Pada Integrasi Ekonomi Regional China-Asean [Disertasi]. Bogor: Institut Pertanian Bogor.

Pindyck & Rubinfeld. (2012). Microeconometrics 8th edition. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.

Rizwana,H. (2015). Yuan Depreciation and Its Impact. Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management. Vol. 5 No.12. pp.61-66.

Sari, Elisa V. (2015). Gubernur BI: Ekonomi RI 2016 Dihantui Tiga Risiko Eksternal.” CNN Indonesia. Diakses pada tanggal 28 Juni 2016 dari http://www.cnnindonesia.com/ekonomi/20151124194705-78-3796/gubernur-bi-ekonomi-ri-2016-dihantui-tiga-risiko-eksternal.

Shik (2016). Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy. Hong Kong Economic Montly, Hang Seng Bank.

Soleymani, Chua, dan Fattah. (2016). The Effect of Currency Depreciation on Industry Trade Flow Between Malaysia and China. The International Trade Journal. DOI:10.1080/08853908.2016.1138908.

Winanda, Maryaningsih, Nurliana, & Satyanugroho. (2014). Evaluasi Transmisi Bauran Kebijakan Bank Indonesia. Working Paper Bank Indonesia WP/3/2014.

Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. (2012). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, 5th Edition.United States: Cengage Learning.

Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. (2012). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, 5th Edition.United States: Cengage Learning.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v12i1.234

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.



Indexed by

  • Google Scholar

 

  • Indonesian Scientific Journal Database (ISJD)

 

  • ResearchBib

 

  • BASE

 

  • OneSearch

 

  • PKP-Index
  • SINTA
  • Garba Rujukan Digital
  • Crossref Metadata Search