FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NILAI IMPOR KEDELAI INDONESIA

Aziz Muslim

doi:10.30908/bilp.v8i1.90

Aziz Muslim Kementerian Perdagangan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v8i1.90

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Keywords: Impor Kedelai, Konsumsi Kedelai, ARDL, Import Soybean, Soybean Consumption

Abstract

Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor kedelai Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berbentuk time series, diolah dan dianalisis dengan metode estimasi dan kointegrasi Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor kedelai Indonesia dalam jangka pendek adalah impor kedelai sebelumnya, harga kedelai USA, harga minyak kedelai Argentina, dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Dalam jangka panjang faktor yang berpengaruh adalah harga minyak kedelai Argentina, PDB Indonesia, dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Kajian ini merekomendasikan bahwa mekanisme pengamanan stok kedelai maupun minyak kedelai bermanfaat untuk menjaga ketersediaan pangan dalam negeri. Peran aktif pemerintah dalam mengamankan stok kedelai nasional serta pengumpulan data-data tentang impor kedelai merupakan tuntutan yang mendesak. Untuk menjaga kestabilan harga dan pasokan kedelai dalam negeri perlu ada upaya untuk mendiversifikasi negara asal impor.

The aim of this study is to determine the factors that affect Indonesia’s imports of soybean. The study utilized time series secondary data and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis. The results reveal that in the short run Indonesia’s import of soybean are influenced by Indonesia's soybean imports in the previous year, price of USA’s soybean, Argentina’s soybean oil price, and the Rupiah exchange rate. In the long run Indonesia’s imports of soybean are influenced by Argentina’s soybean oil, Indonesia GDP, and the Rupiah exchange rate. This study recommends that mechanism to maintain soybean stocks demanded is useful for food security.Therefore Government role is important in providing the accurate data on soybean stock, and diversification of the country of origin is crucial to maintain price stability and supply continuity in the country

Author Biography

Aziz Muslim, Kementerian Perdagangan

Pusat Kebijakan Perdagangan Luar Negeri, Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Kebijakan Perdagangan

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