MARSHALL-LERNER CONDITION PADA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA – TIONGKOK

  • Febria Ramana Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Seluma
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v16i1.684
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Keywords: Marshall-Lerner Condition, Bilateral Swap Currency Arrangement, Tarde Balance, Deficit, Exchange Rate

Abstract

Abstrak

Satu dekade terakhir, neraca perdagangan Indonesia dengan partner dagang terbesarnya, Tiongkok, mengalami defisit yang makin meningkat. Salah satu opsi kebijakan yang banyak menjadi perhatian adalah kebijakan devaluasi atau depresiasi. Depresiasi dinilai dapat memberikan dampak baik bagi neraca perdagangan di negara berkembang, tetapi manfaat tersebut tidak berlaku untuk semua kasus. Beberapa literatur menyatakan suatu negara harus memenuhi prasyarat Marshall-Lerner Condition untuk menerima manfaat tersebut. BSCA dapat memengaruhi penggunaan rupiah dan yuan juga mendorong urgensi peninjauan ulang prasyarat tersebut pada perdagangan bilateral Indonesia dan Tiongkok. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi apakah Indonesia dapat menerima manfaat saat terjadinya depresiasi rupiah terhadap yuan dengan terpenuhinya Marshall-Lerner Condition. Penelitian ini menggunakan Impulse Response Function dengan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) untuk mengidentifikasi kondisi tersebut. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa prasyarat Marshall-Lerner Condition terpenuhi, tetapi ternyata kondisi tersebut tidak cukup menjamin untuk memperbaiki neraca perdagangan ketika rupiah terdepresiasi. Oleh karena itu, pemerintah harus berhati-hati saat terdepresiasinya rupiah terhadap yuan. Pemerintah perlu memperbaiki struktur ekspor-impor dengan memperkuat diversifikasi produk dan kebijakan substitusi impor. Sementara itu, dalam jangka panjang, manajemen risiko yang lebih komprehensif terhadap volatilitas yuan perlu diperhatikan.

Kata Kunci: Marshall-Lerner Condition, Bilateral Swap Currency Arrangement, Defisit, Neraca Perdagangan, Kurs

 

Abstract

In the last decade, Indonesia's trade balance with its largest trading partner, China, has experienced an increasing deficit. One of the policy alternatives that has received policymakers’ attention is currency devaluation or depreciation. Depreciation is considered to have a good impact on the trade balance for developing countries, but this benefit does not apply to all cases. Some literature state that a country must meet the Marshall-Lerner Condition to receive these benefits. BSCA will affect the use of the rupiah and the yuan, which lead to the urgency of reexamining this prerequisite for bilateral trade between Indonesia and China. This study aims to identify whether Indonesia can receive benefits when the rupiah depreciates against the yuan by fulfilling the Marshall-Lerner condition. This study uses the Impulse Response Function as a tool in the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method to identify the condition. The results estimate that the Marshall-Lerner Condition is fulfilled, but this condition is not enough to ensure trade balance improvement as the rupiah depreciates. Therefore, the government must be careful when the rupiah depreciates against the yuan. The government needs to improve the export-import structure by strengthening export product diversification and import substitution policies. Meanwhile, in the long term, more comprehensive risk management of yuan volatility needs to be considered.

Keywords: Marshall-Lerner Condition, Bilateral Swap Currency Arrangement, Deficit, Trade Balance, Exchange Rate

JEL Classification: F13, F14, F31

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Published
2022-07-31
How to Cite
Ramana, F. (2022). MARSHALL-LERNER CONDITION PADA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA – TIONGKOK. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 16(1), 59-78. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v16i1.684
Section
Articles