Dampak Tarif Impor Output dan Input Terhadap Probabilitas Perusahaan Keluar dari Pasar

  • Windi Agustin Maulina universitas indonesia
  • Arie Damayanti Universitas Indonesia



Secara teori, dampak tarif impor input dan output terhadap kinerja perusahaan berbeda. Namun, hal tersebut belum terbukti secara empiris di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dampak tarif impor output dan input terhadap probabilitas perusahaan untuk keluar dari pasar. Kajian ini menggunakan model probit yang merupakan salah satu model dari Cummulative Distribution Function (CDF), dengan menggunakan data Survei Industri Besar dan Sedang (IBS) tahun 2003-2014. Kajian ini menemukan bahwa efek kompetisi yang dihasilkan akibat penurunan tarif impor output akan meningkatkan probabilitas perusahaan untuk keluar dari pasar. Namun penurunan tarif impor input akan menurunkan probabilitas perusahaan untuk keluar dari pasar. Setelah mendisagregasi perusahaan berdasarkan beberapa karakteristik yang dapat diobservasi diperoleh bahwa perusahaan yang memproduksi barang konsumsi, perusahaan dalam industri yang padat karya, perusahaan kecil, dan perusahaan yang terdapat pada industri yang lebih kompetitif memiliki peluang utuk keluar dari pasar lebih tinggi. Kajian ini merekomendasikan penetapan kebijakan tarif impor perlu dikaji baik dari sisi jenis komoditi maupun dari sisi karakteristik perusahaan.   

Kata Kunci: Liberalisasi Tarif Impor, Seleksi Pasar, Probabilitas Perusahaan Keluar



Theoretically, the impact of output and input import tarif on firm’s performance is different, however this have never been shown empirically in Indonesia. This study aims at examining the effect of input and output tarifs on the possibility of firms to exit. Study utilized probit model which is considered as one of the Cummulative Distribution Function (CDF) Model by Indonesian Manufacturing Firms Data from 2003-2014 it was found that competition effects resulting from lower output tarifs exerts greater impact on the likelihood of exit but decreasing input tarifs will actually reduce the probability of exit firms. After classifying our sample into a different group based on observed characteristics of industry and firm, we found firms that produce consumer good, labor intensive firm, small firms, firms in competitive industry have a higher probability to exit.  The study suggested that import tariff policy needs to be assessed both in terms of commodity types and in terms of firm characteristics.

Keywords: Import Tarif Liberalization, Market Selection, Firm Exit

JEL Classification: F13, L25, O24


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