ASEAN-Kanada Free Trade Agreement (FTA): Peluang Bagi Indonesia

  • Steven Raja Ingot Kementerian Perdagangan
  • Dian Dwi Laksani Kementerian Perdagangan
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v13i1.316
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Keywords: ASEAN-Canada FTA, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Perdagangan, Investasi, Economic Growth, Trade, Investment

Abstract

Abstrak

Senior Economic Officials Meetings (SEOM) ke-8 di Laos menghasilkan komitmen bersama ASEAN dan Kanada untuk melakukan feasibility study dalam kerangka kerja sama ASEAN-Kanada FTA. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menghitung dampak perjanjian perdagangan barang Indonesia pada ASEAN-Kanada FTA dengan model analisis Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) - Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) dengan Data Base versi 9. Penelitian ini menggunakan tiga simulasi yaitu (1) Indonesia bergabung ASEAN-Kanada FTA dengan penurunan tarif untuk semua komoditi sebesar 90% mengadopsi proposal modalitas ASEAN dalam Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), (2) penurunan tarif sebesar 90% tanpa Indonesia bergabung dalam ASEAN-Kanada FTA, (3) serta peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan hambatan non tarif sebesar 20%. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa dari sisi Makroekonomi Indonesia akan mendapat dampak positif peningkatan GDP sebesar 0,03% jika bergabung dalam ASEAN-Kanada FTA dibandingkan jika tidak bergabung. Indonesia akan mendapat dampak positif lebih besar jika terdapat peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan NTM sebesar 3,35% serta peningkatan investasi sebesar 8,53%. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi, penurunan output dan peningkatan impor didominasi oleh impor bahan baku dan barang modal yang digunakan untuk input industri, sehingga keberadaan impor bahan baku tetap diperlukan. Kajian ini merekomendasikan penurunan tarif, peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan NTM merupakan kebijakan yang sangat diperlukan.

Kata Kunci: ASEAN-Kanada FTA, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Perdagangan, Investasi

 

Abstract

At the 8th ASEAN Economic Senior Review Official Meetings (SEOM) in Laos, ASEAN and Canada committed to conduct a feasibility study within the framework of ASEAN-Canada FTA. This study aims to measures the impact of ASEAN-Canada FTA implementation to Indonesia using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – the 9th version of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The study run three different simulations (1) Indonesia joining the ASEAN-Canada with a 90% tariff reduction applied to all goods adopting ASEAN modality in Regional Comprehensice Economic Partnership (RCEP); (2) 90% Tariff reduction without Indonesia joining the ASEAN-Canada FTA, (3) improving trade facilitation and decreasing 20% non-tariff measures. Simulation result shown that from Macroeconomic perspective, Indonesia will get positive impact of increasing 0.03% GDP by joining the FTA instead of not joining. Indonesia will get higher impact by increasing trade facilitation and 8.53% investment and reducing 3.35% of NTM. Based on the results, the declining output and increasing import is dominated by import of raw materials and capital goods, therefore import of raw material remain important. This study recommended reducing tariff and NTM as well as improving trade facilitation are necessary for Indonesia.

Keywords: ASEAN-Canada FTA, Economic Growth, Trade, Investment

JEL Classification: F12, F13, F15

Author Biographies

Steven Raja Ingot, Kementerian Perdagangan
Pusat Pengkajian Kerjasama Perdagangan Internasional
Dian Dwi Laksani, Kementerian Perdagangan
Pusat Pengkajian Kerjasama Perdagangan Internasional

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Published
2019-07-31
How to Cite
Ingot, S. R., & Laksani, D. D. (2019). ASEAN-Kanada Free Trade Agreement (FTA): Peluang Bagi Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 13(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v13i1.316
Section
Articles