DAMPAK FLUKTUASI HARGA MINYAK DUNIA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

  • Muhammad Afdi Nizar Kementerian Keuangan
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v6i2.131
Abstract Views: 3778 | PDF Downloads: 2372

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.
  
Keywords: Efek Permintaan, Fluktuasi Harga Minyak, Efek Penawaran, Nilai Tukar Perdagangan, Demand Effect, Oil Price Shocks, Supply Effect, Terms of Trade

Abstract

Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak fluktuasi harga minyak di pasar dunia terhadap perekonomian Indonesia periode tahun 2000–2011. Dengan menggunakan data time series bulanan dan model VAR, studi ini menganalisis dampak fluktuasi harga minyak dunia terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat inflasi, uang beredar, nilai tukar riil, dan suku bunga. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa fluktuasi harga minyak di pasar dunia: (i) berdampak positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi selama 3 bulan (satu kuartal), (ii) mendorong laju inflasi domestik selama satu tahun, (iii) meningkatkan jumlah uang beredar di dalam negeri; penambahan jumlah uang beredar berlangsung selama 5 bulan, (iv) berdampak negatif terhadap nilai tukar riil rupiah selama 10 bulan dan (v) menyebabkan naiknya suku bunga di dalam negeri (efek ini berlangsung selama 10 bulan). Oleh karena itu, pemerintah perlu menempuh langkah-langkah yang bisa mentransformasikan kebiasaan masyarakat yang semula boros BBM menjadi hemat BBM. Selain itu, dibutuhkan kebijakan yang mendorong pengembangan energi alternatif.

 

This study aims to determine the impact of oil price shocks in the world markets on the economy of Indonesia during 2000–2011. Based on monthly time series data and using VAR model, the study tries to analyze effects of oil price shocks to economic growth, inflation rates, money supply, real exchange rates and interest rates. The results show several conclusions: (i) the oil price shocks in the world market have a positive impact on quarterly economic growth; (ii) it also pushes up the domestic inflation rate for a year; (iii) it increases the domestic money supply which lasts for 5 months; (iv) it negatively affects the real exchange rate of Rupiah for 10 months and (v) it leads to rising domestic interest rates (the effect of oil shocks on interest rates lasted for 10 months). Therefore, government needs to take steps that could transform the people habits of fuel uses from wasteful to the efficient one. In addition, the alternative energy development also needs to  promoted.

Author Biography

Muhammad Afdi Nizar, Kementerian Keuangan
Pusat Kebijakan Ekonomi Makro, Badan Kebijakan Fiskal

References

Asteriou, D and S.G. Hall. (2007). Applied Econometrics : A Modern Approach. Revised Edition. New York : Palgrave Macmillan.

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). (2012). Data Produk Domestik Bruto, Inflasi dan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) periode 2000 – 2011.

Bank Indonesia (BI). (2012). Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (SEKI) periode 2000 – 2011.

Berument, H. and H. Tasci. (2002). Infationary Effect of Crude Oil Prices in Turkey. Physica A (316). pp. 568 – 580.

Bhar, R. and A.G. Malliaris. (2011). Oil Prices and the Impact of the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009. Energy Economics (33).

Bloomberg. (2012). Data Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap US dolar dan Harga Minyak Internasional.

Breitenfellner, A; J.C. Cuaresma, and C. Keppel. (2009) Determinants of Crude Oil Prices: Supply, Demand, Cartel or Speculation?, Austrian National Bank, (OeNB) Quarterly Report : Monetary Policy & the Economy Q4/09, pp. 111 – 136.

Brown, S.P.A. and M.K. Yücel. (2002). Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Interpretative Survey. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance (42), pp. 193–208.

CEIC Data Company Ltd. (CEIC). (2012). Data Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap US dolar dan Harga Minyak Internasional.

Coleman, N. and C. Levin. (2006). The Role of Market Speculation in Rising Oil and Gas Prices : A Need to Put the Cop Back on the Beat, Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Washington, p.13.

Cologni, A and M. Manera. (2008). Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries. Energy Economics (30). pp. 856–888.

Doğrul, H. G. and U. Soytas. (2010). Relationship between Oil Prices, Interest Rate, and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Market. Energy Economics (32), pp. 1523– 1528.

Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil as the Macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 91 (2), pp. 228–248.

Hamilton, J. D. (1988). A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and The Business Cycle. Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 96 (3), pp. 593–617.

Hamilton, J..D. (1996). This is What Happened to Oil Price–Macroeconomy Relationship. Journal of Monetary Economics (38), pp. 215–220.

Henriques, I. and P. Sadorsky. (2011). The Effect of Oil Price Volatility on Strategic Investment. Energy Economics (33), pp. 79–87.

International Energy Agency. (IEA, 2008). World Energy Outlook 2008. Paris. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2011). World Economic Outlook Data Base periode 2000 – 2011.

Kaufmann, R.K. (2011). The Role of Market Fundamentals and Speculation in Recent Price Changes for Crude Oil. Energy Policy (39), pp. 105–115.

Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM). (2012). Data Harga Minyak Mentah Indonesia (ICP) periode 2000 – 2011.

Kementerian Keuangan (2012). Nota Keuangan dan Rancangan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (NKRAPBN) periode 2000 – 2011.

Kesicki, F. (2010). The Third Oil Price Surge–What’s Different This Time?. Energy Policy (38), pp. 1596 – 1606.

Kilian, L. (2008). Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks. Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. 46, No. 4 (December), pp. 871 – 909.

Kilian, L. (2009). Oil Price Volatility : Origins and Effects, Background Paper for WTO’s World Trade Report 2010, Geneva : World Trade Organization.

Lardic, S., V. Mignon. (2006). The Impact of Oil Prices on GDP in European Countries : An Empirical Investigation Based on Asymmetric Cointegration. Energy Policy 34 (18), pp. 3910–3915.

Lardic, S and V. Mignon. (2008). Oil Prices and Economic Activity: An Asymmetric Cointegration Approach. Energy Economics (30), pp. 847 – 855.

Nizar, M.A. (2002). Kenaikan Harga Minyak Dunia dan Implikasinya bagi Indonesia. Jakarta : Business News, Nomor 6779, (24 Juni), Jakarta : Business News.

Qianqian, Z. (2011). The Impact of International Oil Price fluctuation on China’s Economy. Energy Procedia (5), pp. 1360–1364.

Sadorsky, P. (1999). Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Activity. Energy Economics (21), pp. 449 – 469.

Tang, W; L.Wu, Libo and Z.X. Zhang. (2010). Oil Price Shocks and their Short- and Long-Term Effects on the Chinese Economy. Energy Economics (32), pp. S3–S14.

Published
2012-12-31
How to Cite
Nizar, M. A. (2012). DAMPAK FLUKTUASI HARGA MINYAK DUNIA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 6(2), 189-210. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v6i2.131
Section
Articles