Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Dinamika Ekspor ASEAN 5: Pendekatan Panel Kointegrasi
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Published:
Dec 3, 2021
Keywords:
ASEAN5, export, pandemic, panel cointegration
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Abstract
This study examine the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on ASEAN5 export performance. The study begins with an exploration of ASEAN5 export data, before and after pandemic. Panel cointegration model (FMOLS and DOLS) is applied to determine the long-term relationship between exports and pandemic. During pandemic, energy exports performance (such as coal, natural gas, and oil) decreased. In general, machineries (HS 84) also experienced a decline in export performance. On the other hand, exports of palm oil and gold were able to grow positively. Exports of the electrical equipment (HS 85) were also able to grow positively for most countries. FMOLS and DOLS models showed a long-term relationship between exports and the pandemic. Furthermore, pandemic and real exchange rate have a negative relationship with exports while economic liquidity (M2) has a positive effect on exports.
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How to Cite
Hanafi, R. U. (2021). Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Dinamika Ekspor ASEAN 5: Pendekatan Panel Kointegrasi. Cendekia Niaga, 5(2), 175-189. https://doi.org/10.52391/jcn.v5i2.616
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References
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Vieira, F., & MacDonald, R. 2016. Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: A Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Economic Studies, 43(2), 203-221.
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WTO. 2021. World trade primed for strong but uneven recovery after COVID-19 pandemic shock, Press/876. World Trade Organization.
Zainuddin, M. R., Shukor, M. S., Zulkifli, M. S., & Abdullah, A. H. 2021. Dynamics of Malaysia’s Bilateral Export Post Covid-19: A Gravity Model Analysis. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 55(1), 51-69.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Gelan, A. 2018. Exchange-rate volatility and international trade performance: Evidence from 12 African countries. Economic Analysis and Policy, 58, 14-21.
Baldwin, R. E., & Evenett, S. J. 2020. COVID-19 and Trade Policy: Why Turning Inward Won’t Work. London: CEPR Press.
Baltagi, B. H. 2005. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (3rd ed.). Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Banik, B., & Roy, C. K. 2021. Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Bilateral Trade Performance in SAARC Countries: A Gravity Model Analysis. International Trade, Politics and Development, 5(1), 32-50.
Bank Indonesia. 2021. Uang Beredar M2 dan Faktor yang Memengaruhi, Mei 2021. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia - DSTa [Divisi Statistik Moneter dan Fiskal].
Bonadio, B., Huo, Z., Levchenko, A. A., & Pandalai-Nayar, N. 2020. Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27224, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Cao, L., Li, T., Wang, R., & Zhu, J. 2020. Impact of COVID-19 on China's Agricultural Trade. China Agricultural Economic Review, 13(1), 1-21.
Curran, L., Eckhardt, J., & Lee, J. 2021. The Trade Policy Response to COVID-19 and Its Implications for International Bbusiness. critical perspectives on international business, 17(2), 252-320.
Devi, S., Warasniasih, N. M., Masdiantini, P. R., & Musmini, L. S. 2020. The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Financial Performance of Firms on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Journal of Economics, Business, and Accountancy Ventura, 23(2), 226-242.
Doanh, N. K., Truong, L. T., & Heo, Y. 2020. Impact of institutional and cultural distances on ASEAN's trade efficiency. Journal of Economic Studies.
Dogan, E., & Seker, F. 2016. The influence of real output,r enewable and non-renewable energy, trade and financial development on carbon emissions in the top renewable energy countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 60(2016), 1074-1085.
ECLAC. 2020. The effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on international trade and logistics. Special Report COVID-19, No.6, United Nations - Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.
Ee, C. Y. 2016. Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries. Procedia Economic and Finance, 35, 232-240.
Fernandes, N. 2020. Economic Effects of Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) on the World Economy. IESE Business School Working Paper No. WP-1240-E, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557504.
Ghani, G. M., & Sofyan, J. F. 2014. Trade Variety and Export Performance of ASEAN-5. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 48(1), 49-61.
Ginting, A. M. 2013. Pengaruh Nilai Tukar terhadap Ekspor Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 7(1), 1-18.
Handfield, R. B., Graham, G., & Burns, L. 2020. Corona Virus, Tariffs, Trade Wars and Supply Chain Evolutionary Design. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 40(10), 1649-1660.
Ibn-Mohammed, T., Mustapha, K. B., Godsell, J., Adamu, Z., Babatunde, K. A., Akintade, D. D., . . . Koh, S. 2021. A critical analysis of the impacts of COVID-19 on the global economy and ecosystems and opportunities for circular economy strategies. Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 164(2021), 105169.
Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. H. 2003. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
IMF. 2021. World Economic Outlook - Managing Divergent Recoveries. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
Jena, N. R., & Sethi, N. 2019. Does inward remittance lead to export performance in South Asian countries? International Journal of Social Economics, 47(2), 145-172.
Kao, C., & Chiang, M. H. 2000. On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data. Advances in Econometrics, 15, 179-222.
Krugman, P. R., & Obstfeld, M. 2009. International Economics Theory & Policy (Eight Edition ed.). Boston: Addison-Wesley.
Minondo, A. 2021. Impact of COVID-19 on the Trade of Goods and Services in Spain. Applied Economic Analysis, 29(85), 58-76.
Nishimura, Y., & Hirayama, K. 2013. Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China. Japan and the World Economy, 25-26(January-March), 90-101.
Obayelu, A. E., Edewor, S. E., & Ogbe, A. O. 2021. Trade Effects, Policy Responses and Opportunities of COVID-19 Outbreak in Africa. Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 14(1), 44-59.
Pan, M., & Nguyen, H. 2018. Export and growth in ASEAN: does export destination matter? Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 11(2), 122-131.
Pedroni, P. 1999. Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 657-670.
Pedroni, P. 2000. Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels. Advances in Econometrics, 15, 93-130.
Pedroni, P. 2004. Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20, 597-625.
Pesaran, M. H. 2015. Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Phillips, P. C., & Moon, H. 1999. Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data. Econometrica, 67, 1057-1111.
Pino, G., Tas, D., & Sharma, S. C. 2016. An investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in East Asia. Applied Economics, 48(26), 2397-2411.
Sarkis, J., Cohen, M. J., Dewick, P., & Schröder, P. 2020. A brave new world: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for transitioning to sustainable supply and production. Resour Conserv Recycl. doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104894
Sonaglio, C. M., Campos, A. C., & Braga, M. J. 2016. Effects of Interest and Exchange Rate Policies on Brazilian Exports. EconomiA, 17(1), 77-95.
Sugiharti, L., Esquivias, M. A., & Setyorani, B. 2020. The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Indonesia's Top Exports to the Five Main Export Markets. Heliyon, 6(1), e03141.
Umaru, A., Sa'idu, B. M., & Musa, S. 2013. An empirical analysis of exchange rate volatility on export trade in a developing economy. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 4(1), 42-53.
Vieira, F., & MacDonald, R. 2016. Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: A Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Economic Studies, 43(2), 203-221.
WHO. 2021. COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update - Edition 49, published 20 July 2021. World Heatlh Organization.
Wong, K. N., & Tang, T. C. 2008. The Effects of Exchange Rate Variability on Malaysia’s Disaggregated Electrical Exports. Journal of Economic Studies, 35(2), 154-169.
WTO. 2021. World trade primed for strong but uneven recovery after COVID-19 pandemic shock, Press/876. World Trade Organization.
Zainuddin, M. R., Shukor, M. S., Zulkifli, M. S., & Abdullah, A. H. 2021. Dynamics of Malaysia’s Bilateral Export Post Covid-19: A Gravity Model Analysis. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 55(1), 51-69.