Governance and Accountability of Macroeconomic Variables in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and India Using Three Models

Main Article Content

Kumara Jati
Aziza Rahmaniar Salam

Abstract

Abstract


Fluctuation in macroeconomics variables has given a difficulty to interested parties to implement good governance and appropriate accountability to accelerate sustainable development. This is a research to understand how to maintain stability of macroeconomic variables and its relations with partner countries. This study takes the examples of three major countries in Asia, Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand (IMT), and India. Moreover, public sector openness and public administration need to facilitate information disclosure and increased cooperation between countries. Based on VAR model, the shock effect of macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, interest rates and foreign exchange reserves) vary each other. The existence of shock indicates the transmission among variables indirectly through intermediate channel, such as: capital, commodity and money market between 4 countries. Model ARMA-ARCH/GARCH and STSM shows macroeconomic variables in IMT and India will be relatively maintained and stable in 2022. Good governance should be based on principles of accountability, innovation, integration, and collaboration. Economic structure similarity and diplomatic relations established for decades have made IMT and India able to help each other to facilitated information disclosure and increased cooperation between the countries. However, the presence of shock from outside remains to be watched out as the global changes can disrupt the sustainable development.


 


Abstrak


 


Fluktuasi variable ekonomi makro telah memberikan kesulitan bagi pihak yang berkepentingan untuk menerapkan Tata Kelola yang baik dan Akuntabilitas yang tepat untuk mempercepat pembangunan berkelanjutan. Ini adalah penelitian untuk memahami bagaimana menjaga stabilitas variable ekonomi makro dan hubungannya dengan negara-negara mitra. Studi ini mengambil contoh tiga negara utama di Asia, Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand (IMT) dan India. Selain itu, keterbukaan sektor publik dan administrasi public perlu memfasilitasi keterbukaan informasi dan peningkatan kerjasama antar negara. Berdasarkan model Vector AutoRegression (VAR), Shok variable ekonomi makro (nilai tukar, suku bunga dan cadangan devisa) bervariasi satu sama lain. Keberadaan shok menunjukkan adanya transmisi antar variable secara tidak langsung melalui saluran perantara, seperti: pasar modal, pasar komoditas dan pasar uang antara 4 negara. Model ARMA-ARCH/GARCH dan Struktural Time-Series Model (STSM) menunjukkan bahwa variable ekonomi makro di IMT dan India akan relatif dapat dipertahankan dan stabil pada tahun 2022. Tata Kelola yang baik harus didasarkan pada prinsip-prinsip akuntabilitas, inovasi, integrasi, dan kolaborasi. Kemiripan struktur ekonomi dan hubungan diplomatik yang dibangun selama beberapa decade telah membuat IMT dan India dapat saling membantu untuk memfasilitasi pengungkapan informasi dan peningkatan kerjasama antar negara. Namun, keberadaan shok dari luar masih harus diwaspadai karena perubahan global dapat mengganggu pembangunan berkelanjutan.


 

Article Details

Section
Articles

References

Agbetsiafa, D.K. (2010). Regional Integration, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from UEMOA Countries. International Business and Economic Research Journal, 9(10).

Bank Indonesia. (2015). Maintaining Stability and Stimulating Growth With Policy Mix: Part III Policy Response. 2015 Economic Report on Indonesia, Bank Indonesia.

Bank of Thailand. (2018). The Impact of Exchange Rates on the Thai Economy. Monetary Policy Report June 2018.

Bhanumurthy, N.R. (2002). Microstructures in the Indian Foreign Exchange Market. WP, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi Uni.

Bhogal, Preety. (2018). India-ASEAN Economic Relations: Examining Future Possibilities. ORF Issue Brief, January 2018, No.221.

Box, G.E.P., G.M. Jenkins. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Rev. ed. San Francisco: Holden-Day.

BPK. (2018). Laporan Tahunan Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan. BPK, Jakarta.

BPK. (2019). Laporan Hasil Pemeriksaan Atas LK Pemerintah Pusat 2018. BPK.

DPR. (2014). Pengaruh Perubahan Asumsi Makro Terhadap Defisit APBN. DPR RI.

Durbin, J., & Koopman, S. J. (2001). Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods. Oxford University Press.

Engle, R.F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of U.K. Inflation. Econometrica 64, 813-836.

Estiko, F.I., and Wahyuddin. (2019). Analysis of Indonesia's Inflation using ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network. Economics Development Analysis Journal 8 (2).

Exim Bank India. (2018). Strengthening ASEAN-India Partnership: Trends and Future Prospects. Working Paper, Bank of India.

Government of India. (2021). Key to the Budget Documents 2021-2022. Ministry of Finance.

Gujarati, D.N. (1994). Basic Econometrics: 4th Edition. Mc Graw Hill, USA.

Hamilton, J.D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, New Jersey.

Harvey, A., & Peters, S. (1993). Structural Time Series Models. Handbook of Statistics, 11(2).

Hussin, Fauzi. (2012). Economic Growth in ASEAN-4 Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. International Journal of Economic and Finance, No.9: 2012.

IFS-IMF. (2019). Macroeconomic & Financial Data. Data of IFS -IMF.

Jati, Kumara. (2014). Analysis of Sugar Prices Volatility using ARMA and ARCH/GARCH. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, Vol.5, 2, 136-141.

Jati, Kumara., and Premaratne, G. (2017). Analysis of Staple Food Price Behaviour: Multivariate BEKK-GARCH Model. JAFEB 4(4).

Jati, Kumara., and Salam, A. R. (2017). Examining The Behavior of Indonesian Stock Index, Macroeconomic Variables and Commercial Bank Stock Prices. Proceeding 3rd Sriwijaya University.

Jati, Kumara. (2017). Analisis Hubungan Antara Harga Minyak Mentah, Emas, dan Timah. Jurnal Analisis Kebijakan, Vol. 1, LAN.

Jati, Kumara., and Salam, A.R. (2018). Input-Output Tables Analysis in APEC Digital Economy Data for Manufacture of Rubber and Plastic Products. Prosiding The 2nd ICOT, Kemendag.

Jati, Kumara. (2018). Analisis Efek Musim Hujan dan Kemarau terhadap Harga Beras. Jurnal Manajemen Industri dan Logistik, Vol. 2, Issue 1, 40-51, PoltekAPP.

Jati, Kumara., and Salam, A.R. (2019). Trade Estimation of Indonesia and India. Ikra-Ith Ekonomika, Vol.2, Issue 2, UP-YAI.

Kemendag. (2015). Renstra Kementerian Perdagangan Tahun 2015-2019. Kemendag.

Kemenkeu. (2015). Pedoman Proses, Perencanaan, Penganggaran, Dan Pelaksanaan APBN. DJA, Kemenkeu.

Muslim, A. (2016). Apakah Perdagangan Menjadi Pertimbangan Investasi? Kajian Ekonomi & Keuangan, Vol. 20,No.2 BKF.

Oktavia, A.L., Sentosa, S.U., and Aimon, H. (2013). Analisis Kurs dan Money Supply di Indonesia. Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi.

Pramono, A.J., & Hendharto, H. (2017). Transformation Model of The Audit Board of the Republic of Indonesia. JTAKEN, Vol.3.

Retnowati, Endang. (2012). Keterbukaan Informasi Publik dan Good Governance. Perspektif, Volume XVII No.1 Tahun 2012.

Sankaran, Kamla. (2018). From Look East to Act East: India's Growing Engagement with ASEAN & Beyond. MEA India Government.

Saunder, A. (1995). The Determinants of Bank Interest. Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 813-832.

Sugeng, Nugroho, M.N., Ibrahim, and Yanfitri. (2010). Effects of Foreign Exchange Supply and Demand Dynamics to Rupiah Exchange Rate and Economic Performance. Bulletin of Monetary, Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia.

Sumarto, H. Sj. (2003). Inovasi, Partisipasi, and Good Governance: 20 Prakarsa Inovatif dan Partisipasi di Indonesia. Yayasan Obor.

Treasury Malaysia. (2021). Economic Outlook 2021. Percetakan Nasional Malaysia Berhad.

Tripathy, R. (2013). Intervention in Foreign Exchange Markets. BIS Paper, RBI.

Tsai, Fai. (2019). An Overview on Macroeconomics: Ideas, Approaches and Importance. International Journal of Tax Economics and Management.

UNDP. (2014). Governance for Sustainable Development. Discussion Paper of UNDP.

UNDP. (2015). Sustainable Development Goals. SDGs Booklet UNDP.

Warjiyo, Perry. (2013). Indonesia: Stabilizing the Exchange Rate Along Its Fundamental. Bank for International Settlements Papers, Vol.73, pp 177-187. Bank Indonesia.

Wijoyo, N.A. (2016). Peramalan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap USD dengan Menggunakan Model GARCH. Kajian Ekonomi & Keuangan, Vol.20 No.2. BKF.